It’s Oscar time again! The 95th Academy Awards take place tonight (March 12th 2023) and herewith are my predictions for who I think will take home the much prized statuettes on the night. Will I get many right? Or will it be just another slap in the face? (Pun wholly intended!)
Seriously, I doubt this year’s show can possibly top the drama of Will Smith’s career nadir, but the drinking game this year will surely revolve around the number of times host Jimmy Kimmel, or one of the presenting stars, references “slap-gate”.
Predictions this year are going to be much tougher than usual I think. The previous awards shows, typically a marker for which way the Oscars will go, have been all over the place. With the SAG award love for “Everything, Everywhere All At Once” throwing everything into doubt again – even “Best Actress” which I thought was a shoo-in for Cate Blanchett. It will be one of the most exciting television events of the year – at least for me, because I’m sad that way!
Now updated with the “Did Win!” results. It’s early in the morning to do calculations, but I think I make that 13/23 for my score, which is more than 50% which (frankly) this year I’ll take as a victory!
BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – Malte Grunert, Producer
- AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER – James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
- ELVIS – Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
- THE FABELMANS – Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
- TÁR – Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK – Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
- TRIANGLE OF SADNESS – Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
- WOMEN TALKING – Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers
Will Win: Everything, Everywhere All At Once.
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin.
Let me just celebrate that for once I have managed to see all of these Best Picture films before the Oscars! The only one I don’t agree with being on this list is “Triangle of Sadness”. Of the others, ALL are fine films: the quality of the offerings this year is really strong. But given the way the Screen Actors Guild awards went, I can see the tide flowing in the direction of the Daniel’s mind-trip multiverse fantasy.
Did Win: Everything, Everywhere All At Once.
Really surprised this got so much momentum. 7/11 is a pretty incredible haul on the night.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES
- CATE BLANCHETT – Tár
- ANA DE ARMAS – Blonde
- ANDREA RISEBOROUGH – To Leslie
- MICHELLE WILLIAMS – The Fabelmans
- MICHELLE YEOH – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Cate Blanchett.
Should Win: Cate Blanchett.
I have to have yet another whinge that Danielle Deadwyler is not nominated in this category for “Till“: what a heinous crime. As for those who were nominated, all the tide was running with Cate Blanchett to win this until the Screen Actor’s (sic) Guild stuck their big ungrammatical foot in the door by selecting Michelle Yeoh (who, to be fair, also won the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy). Having watched EEAAO again recently, it is a cracking performance from Yeoh. But I don’t think anything could or should top Blanchett from getting the prize this year. But – per my review of “To Leslie” posted yesterday – I think Andrea Riseborough definitely *should* have got her place on this list. A stunning performance.
Did Win: Michelle Yeoh.
Cate must be really disappointed. But you could see she was expecting it.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES
- AUSTIN BUTLER – Elvis
- COLIN FARRELL – The Banshees of Inisherin
- BRENDAN FRASER – The Whale
- PAUL MESCAL – Aftersun
- BILL NIGHY – Living
Will Win: Colin Farrell.
Should Win: Colin Farrell.
What makes this category particularly interesting is that all of the names on it are first-time nominees, which is great. (I got questioned about this (re Colin Farrell) by Lucy Ambache on her BBC Radio Solent show last Friday… but I did double check, and this is Farrell’s first Oscar nomination!).
Given the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes (Motion Picture) went with Butler and the SAGs went with Fraser, this very much feels like a two-horse race. But my personal favourite would be Farrell. And he HAS won the (less prestigeous, obviously) Golden Glode (Musical/Comedy) award. My podcast colleague Scott Forbes declared Farrell as being”out of it”… but against the odds, I just have a bit of a hunch that this one might be a surprise. I’m sure I’m going to lose my bet on this one! But wouldn’t it be a delicious surprise though if he did get it!?
Did Win: Brendan Fraser.
The most emotional speech of the night.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES
- ANGELA BASSETT – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- HONG CHAU – The Whale
- KERRY CONDON – The Banshees of Inisherin
- JAMIE LEE CURTIS – Everything Everywhere All at Once
- STEPHANIE HSU – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Angela Bassett.
Should Win: Hong Chau.
Oh man. This is the hardest category to call this year. The Golden Globes went with Angela Bassett; The BAFTAs went with Kerry Condon and the SAGs went (surprisingly) with Jamie Lee Curtis. I’m going to stick with my gut instinct on this one and stay with Angela Bassett for the win, but I think it should be between her and Kerry Condon. My personal favourite would be Hong Chau, but I suspect she will be out of contention given the previous results. But, who knows? Perhaps this will be the most indecisive year in history and each awards body goes with a different actor!
Did Win: Jamie Lee Curtis.
Hmm… happy for Jamie Lee, and a great speech, but I really didn’t agree with this one. Sentiment over common sense from the voters here.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES
- BRENDAN GLEESON – The Banshees of Inisherin
- BRIAN TYREE HENRY – Causeway
- JUDD HIRSCH – The Fabelmans
- BARRY KEOGHAN – The Banshees of Inisherin
- KE HUY QUAN – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan.
Should Win: Barry Keoghan.
Once again we have a split decision to date, with the Golden Globes and SAGs going for Ke Huy Quan and BAFTA, surprisingly and wonderfully, going for Barry Keoghan. But I would have thought that Quan will have this one nailed on for the Oscars, and that is where my money will be going.
Did Win: Ke Huy Quan.
Another wonderful speech. But this was a shoo-in for sure.
DIRECTING
NOMINEES
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – Martin McDonagh
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
- THE FABELMANS – Steven Spielberg
- TÁR – Todd Field
- TRIANGLE OF SADNESS – Ruben Östlund
Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Daniels”).
Should Win: Martin McDonagh.
Another really difficult one to predict this year. The Golden Globes went with Spielberg and the BAFTAs went with Edward Berger for “All Quiet on the Western Front” – not even nominated here! I don’t feel that the awards tide has been running with “The Fabelmans” (given the BAFTA snub) so I thing it might be a two-horse race this one between ‘Daniels’ and McDonagh. I’m going to plump with Daniels to win, but my heart would be with McDonagh for “Banshees”.
Did Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Daniels”).
By this stage it looks like everything is going with EEAAO.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
NOMINEES
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – Written by Martin McDonagh
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
- THE FABELMANS – Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
- TÁR – Written by Todd Field
- TRIANGLE OF SADNESS – Written by Ruben Östlund
Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin.
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin.
Hmmm. Interesting choice. The only one here that I could see really challenging Banshees would be Tár, although there might be some love also for the Spielberg/Kushner script so that the Fabelmans goes away with at least something.
Did Win: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once.
Very surprised at this one.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
NOMINEES
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – Screenplay – Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
- GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY – Written by Rian Johnson
- LIVING – Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK – Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
- WOMEN TALKING – Screenplay by Sarah Polley
Will Win: Women Talking.
Should Win: Living
I was surprised that the BAFTA went to AQotWF. And Top Gun: Maverick in this list? Really? I think the most worthy screenplay here is “Women Talking” and I just feel its lack of love elsewhere might float some sympathy votes its way here.
Did Win: Women Talking.
Pleased that this film got something. But looks like maybe nothing at all though for Fabelmans, Tár, Banshees, Babylon and (possibly) Elvis.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
NOMINEES
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – Volker Bertelmann
- BABYLON – Justin Hurwitz
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – Carter Burwell
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – Son Lux
- THE FABELMANS – John Williams
Will Win: Babylon.
Should Win: Babylon.
Mark Kermode must have been delighted when his personal choice – “All Quiet on the Western Front” – won the BAFTA. But I’d backed “Babylon” for this, and I’ll stick with that prediction for the Oscar.
Did Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Mark Kermode will be happy again!
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
NOMINEES
- APPLAUSE – from Tell It like a Woman; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
- HOLD MY HAND – from Top Gun: Maverick; Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
- LIFT ME UP – from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
- NAATU NAATU – from RRR; Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
- THIS IS A LIFE – from Everything Everywhere All at Once; Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne
Will Win: Hold My Hand.
Should Win: Naatu Naatu.
“Applause” is a another Diane Warren “um-chugger” ballad: nothing we’ve not heard many times before. “This is a life” is about as crazy as the movie, but doesn’t much appeal to me I’m afraid or (I suspect) the Academy voters. “Lift me up” is a beautiful slow-ballad by Rihanna and could be a winner. So although I hate the vocorder stuff at the start of “Hold My Hand”, its such a power-ballad and Gaga belts it out so well that I think this will pick up the award.
But the one I am SO looking forward to some Bollywood colour from “Naatu Naatu” during this Oscar show! And I’d love “Naatu Naatu” to win. I’ve still not seen “RRR”, but I’ve watched the film clip with this song and it is completely mental!
Did Win: Naatu Naatu.
Surprised the Academy mindset was open to voting this in over the more Western offerings. Pleased (but lost money again!)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
NOMINEES
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – James Friend
- BARDO, FALSE CHRONICLE OF A HANDFUL OF TRUTHS – Darius Khondji
- ELVIS – Mandy Walker
- EMPIRE OF LIGHT – Roger Deakins
- TÁR – Florian Hoffmeister.
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
I’ve still got to watch “Bardo…” – – I started it last week when I was ill, but at nearly 3 hours of whackiness, I parked it for later!
The BAFTA went to “All Quiet on the Western Front” and having watched it again recently, I think that would be a good call. I’ll stick with that as my prediction, but wonder if “Elvis” might get more love from the US voters.
Did Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
FILM EDITING
NOMINEES
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
- ELVIS – Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – Paul Rogers
- TÁR – Monika Willi
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK – Eddie Hamilton
Will Win: Everything, Everywhere All at Once.
Should Win: Everything, Everywhere All at Once.
Watching this again, the editing is just extraordinary, particularly during the multiverse skipping segments. This feels like a shoo-in to me.
Did Win: Everything, Everywhere All at Once.
Another of the shoo-ins as expected.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
NOMINEES
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
- AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER – Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
- BABYLON – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
- ELVIS – Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
- THE FABELMANS – Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara
Will Win: Babylon.
Should Win: Babylon.
I’ll go with the BAFTA winner on this one. But “Elvis” might come through instead.
Did Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
SOUND
NOMINEES
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
- AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER – Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
- THE BATMAN – Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
- ELVIS – David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK – Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Very surprised that Tár wasn’t nominated. That would have been my personal choice. I’ve gone with AQotWF, but “Maverick” or “Avatar 2” I would say are strong contenders here.
Did Win: Top Gun: Maverick.
VISUAL EFFECTS
NOMINEES
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
- AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
- THE BATMAN – Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
- BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER – Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK – Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water.
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water.
Surely this is another shoo-ins for these awards, with its innovative underwater use of CGI.
Did Win: Avatar: The Way of Water.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
NOMINEES
- GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO – Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
- MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON – Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
- PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH – Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
- THE SEA BEAST – Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
- TURNING RED – Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinnochio.
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinnochio.
I think this must be one of the nailed on categories, and I think my bet on this one will be safe (but unexciting!). I personally didn’t warm to the film as many critics have, but I can recognize its mastery of the craft. I particularly liked “The Sea Beast” (for the story) and “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” for the entertainment value.
Did Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinnochio.
COSTUME DESIGN
NOMINEES
- BABYLON – Mary Zophres
- BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER – Ruth Carter
- ELVIS – Catherine Martin
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE – Shirley Kurata
- MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS – Jenny Beavan
Will Win: Elvis.
Should Win: Elvis.
The BAFTAs went with Elvis for this one, and so will I. But I originally predicted “Babylon” for this one at the BAFTAs, and I still think that has a good chance.
Did Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
NOMINEES
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
- THE BATMAN – Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
- BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER – Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
- ELVIS – Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
- THE WHALE – Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Annemarie Bradley
Will Win: The Whale.
Should Win: The Whale.
I reckon this one will be a close race between “The Whale” and “Elvis”. But I’ve plumped (excuse the pun) for “The Whale” just for the incredible work on that prosthetic suit that Brendan Fraser had to wear (complete with its own in-built cooling system!).
Did Win: The Whale.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
NOMINEES
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT – Germany
- ARGENTINA, 1985 – Argentina
- CLOSE – Belgium
- EO – Poland
- THE QUIET GIRL – Ireland
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Should Win: The Quiet Girl.
Irritatingly, I missed out on seeing “Close” and “EO” at the cinema last week since I was laid low at home. But I loved all of the other films. Given the BAFTA success, “All Quiet on the Western Front” seems like the front-runner here. But I would personally choose the much quieter but delicious Irish drama “The Quiet Girl”.
Did Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
NOMINEES
- ALL THAT BREATHES – Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
- ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED – Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
- FIRE OF LOVE – Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
- A HOUSE MADE OF SPLINTERS – Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
- NAVALNY – Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris
Will Win: Navalvny.
Should Win: Navalny.
I’m unsighted on two of these. But of the ones I’ve seen, the BAFTA winner “Navalny” is utterly gripping and deserving imho of the Oscar here. The anti-Russian sentiment will also no doubt play well. (Additional drinking game option for the number of times the winners mention “Ukraine” in their acceptance speech!)
Did Win: Navalny.
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
NOMINEES
- THE ELEPHANT WHISPERERS – Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
- HAULOUT – Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
- HOW DO YOU MEASURE A YEAR? – Jay Rosenblatt
- THE MARTHA MITCHELL EFFECT – Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
- STRANGER AT THE GATE – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers.
Should Win: Stranger at the Gate.
For the first time EVER I have managed to watch all of these documentary shorts, and greatly enjoyed the experience. There are some really fine short films in this list. I think the voters will go for the animal one (which I agree is beautifully filmed). My choice though would be for the extraordinary twist in “Stranger at the Gate”: genuinely uplifting.
Did Win: The Elephant Whisperers.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
NOMINEES
- THE BOY, THE MOLE, THE FOX AND THE HORSE – Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
- THE FLYING SAILOR – Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
- ICE MERCHANTS – João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetan
- MY YEAR OF DICKS – Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
- AN OSTRICH TOLD ME THE WORLD IS FAKE AND I THINK I BELIEVE IT – Lachlan Pendragon
Will Win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse.
Should Win: An Ostrich told me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe it.
Another first! That I’ve got to see all of these short animations this year! I wonder if the Academy voters will have enough of a sense of humour (humor!) to vote “A Year of Dicks” (an animation about a 15 year old trying to lose her virginity) as the top prize?! But I *think* they will go with the British entry “The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse”, which would obviously be great. My personal choice would be the hilarious stop-motion entry “An Ostrich Told Me The World is Fake and I Think I Believe it”: if you have 11 minutes free today, give it a watch – https://vimeo.com/796231519.
Did Win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
NOMINEES
- AN IRISH GOODBYE – Tom Berkeley and Ross White
- IVALU – Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
- LE PUPILLE – Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
- NIGHT RIDE – Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
- THE RED SUITCASE – Cyrus Neshvad
Will Win: The Red Suitcase.
Should Win: Night Ride.
I managed to catch all but one of these short films, and again there is some really good stuff in here. Whilst I’d love the (very funny) “An Irish Goodbye” to win, I think the humour and the accents might be a bit too GB-centric for Oscar voter tastes. (But then again, they did go for “Banshees”?!). I think the political aspect of “The Red Suitcase” (women’s rights in Iraq) might sway the vote that way, so even though I haven’t seen it I’ll put that as my “Will Win”. My personal favourite though is the Norwegian film “Nattrikken” (“Night Ride”), which I thought was just perfect.
Did Win: An Irish Goodbye.
