This Sunday (19th February) sees the 2023 BAFTAs being announced. As is now traditional, I’m sticking my neck out and suggesting my “Will Win” and “Should Win” opinions for the BAFTA Awards. With such a host of really great films released in 2022, post Covid, this is going to be a horribly difficult year to pick the winners. But this is my best shot.
Thankfully, for once, I have seen the vast majority of the nominees this year. Any films which I’ve not yet seen are marked with an asterisk.
Updated after the awards:
A shockingly bad 9/24 this year. I thought I would be lucky to get 50% this year, but I badly failed on even that. Some very interesting choices with All Quient on the Western Front getting a lot more love than I ever expected.
Best Film
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Malte Grunert
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh
- ELVIS Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang
- TÁR Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan
Will Win: The Banshees of Inishirin.
Should Win: The Banshees of Inishirin.
I think this will be a two-horse race between Banshees and EEAAO, and depending on how the chips fall on the night we should know which way it will go before we get to this announcement. But I can’t not back my No.1 film of 2022 to win.
Did Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
As the evening went on, and with Banshees winning Best British Film, I could see this one coming. But still a big surprise that will send ripples across to the Oscars.
Best Director
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Edward Berger
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Martin McDonagh
- DECISION TO LEAVE Park Chan-wook
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
- TÁR Todd Field
- THE WOMAN KING Gina Prince-Bythewood
Will Win: Martin McDonagh.
Should Win: Martin McDonagh.
Not always the case, but I’d predict a lot of love in the room for Martin McDonagh to win this.
Did Win: Edward Berger.
Bit of a surprise there. Perhaps with Best British Film going to Banshees, the Best Film might go to All Quiet on the Western Front? (Written before it did!)
Leading Actor
- AUSTIN BUTLER Elvis
- COLIN FARRELL The Banshees of Inisherin
- BRENDAN FRASER The Whale
- DARYL McCORMACK Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
- PAUL MESCAL Aftersun
- BILL NIGHY Living
Will Win: Colin Farrell.
Should Win: Brendan Fraser.
I originally had this “Will Win” as Bill Nighy, since I thought that BAFTA voters might vote with their hearts on this one. But I thought I would likely to be proved wrong and it will probably go to either Fraser or Farrell. To be honest, I’d be happy with either of those three winning – – it’s a VERY strong category this year! But I’ve plumped for Farrell.
Did Win: Austin Butler.
Well – that’s a surprise. Didn’t see that one coming.
Supporting Actor
- BRENDAN GLEESON The Banshees of Inisherin
- BARRY KEOGHAN The Banshees of Inisherin
- KE HUY QUAN Everything Everywhere All At Once
- EDDIE REDMAYNE The Good Nurse
- ALBRECHT SCHUCH All Quiet on the Western Front
- MICHEAL WARD Empire of Light
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan.
Should Win: Barry Keoghan.
We may know with this nomination about BAFTA voter’s feelings towards EEAAO vs Banshees. My vote would go for the standout and heartbreaking performance of Barry Keoghan in “Banshees”.
Did Win: Barry Keoghan.
Awesome choice! So delighted!
Outstanding Debut By A British Writer, Director Or Producer
- AFTERSUN Charlotte Wells (Writer/Director)
- BLUE JEAN Georgia Oakley (Writer/Director), Hélène Sifre (Producer)
- ELECTRIC MALADY Marie Lidén (Director)
- GOOD LUCK TO YOU, LEO GRANDE Katy Brand (Writer)
- REBELLION* Elena Sánchez Bellot (Director) Maia Kenworthy (Director)
Will Win: Aftersun.
Should Win: Good Luck to you Leo Grande.
Another tough category. I’ve seen four out of the five so far (hoping to catch “Rebellion” tomorrow). Of those I’ve seen, I haven’t seen a bad one. I think Aftersun will take it, but I’d be split pretty evenly on the others for “Should Win”. But I’ll give it to Aftersun too.
Did Win: Aftersun.
Great, clever and witty speech by Charlotte Wells. Loved it!
Leading Actress
- CATE BLANCHETT Tár
- VIOLA DAVIS The Woman King
- DANIELLE DEADWYLER Till
- ANA DE ARMAS Blonde
- EMMA THOMPSON Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
- MICHELLE YEOH Everything Everywhere All At Once
Will Win: Cate Blanchett.
Should Win: Danielle Deadwyler.
.
Did Win: Cate Blanchett.
As fully expected, although it still looked like a surprise to her (although, to be fair, she is an actress!)
Supporting Actress
- ANGELA BASSETT Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- HONG CHAU The Whale
- KERRY CONDON The Banshees of Inisherin
- DOLLY DE LEON Triangle of Sadness
- JAMIE LEE CURTIS Everything Everywhere All At Once
- CAREY MULLIGAN She Said
Will Win: Angela Bassett.
Should Win: Hong Chau.
A part of me wonders whether Jamie Lee Curtis – given her ecstatic online reaction to nomination – might get some votes! But this is a pretty open race and I can see Bassett, Chau and Condon being in with a good chance. I’ve got for Bassett, but I’m not confident on this one.
Did Win: Kerry Condon.
A surprising choice for me (but she was the bookie’s favourite). But very welcome. Really, looking at this list, I would have been happy with 5 of the 6 having won this.
Adapted Screenplay
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell
- LIVING Kazuo Ishiguro
- THE QUIET GIRL Colm Bairéad
- SHE SAID Rebecca Lenkiewicz
- THE WHALE Samuel D. Hunter
Will Win: Living.
Should Win: The Quiet Girl.
Did Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Am surprised at this one. The negative chatter I’ve seen on Twitter has all been about how the screenplay deviates from tbe book!
Original Screenplay
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Martin McDonagh
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
- THE FABELMANS Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg
- TÁR Todd Field
- TRIANGLE OF SADNESS Ruben Östlund
Will Win: The Banshees of Inishirin.
Should Win: The Banshees of Inishirin.
Did Win: The Banshees of Inishirin.
Good choice, as expected.
Original Score
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Volker Bertelmann
- BABYLON Justin Hurwitz
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Carter Burwell
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Son Lux
- GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Alexandre Desplat
Will Win: Babylon.
Should Win: Babylon.
Did Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
AQotWF smashing it tonight.
Outstanding British Film
- AFTERSUN Charlotte Wells, Mark Ceryak, Amy Jackson, Barry Jenkins, Adele Romanski
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin
- BRIAN AND CHARLES Jim Archer, Rupert Majendie, David Earl, Chris Hayward
- EMPIRE OF LIGHT Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris
- GOOD LUCK TO YOU, LEO GRANDE Sophie Hyde, Debbie Gray, Adrian Politowski, Katy Brand
- LIVING Oliver Hermanus, Elizabeth Karlsen, Stephen Woolley, Kazuo Ishiguro
- ROALD DAHL’S MATILDA THE MUSICAL Matthew Warchus, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Jon Finn, Luke Kelly, Dennis Kelly
- SEE HOW THEY RUN Tom George, Gina Carter, Damian Jones, Mark Chappell
- THE SWIMMERS Sally El Hosaini, Tim Bevan, Tim Cole, Eric Fellner, Ali Jaafar, Jack Thorne
- THE WONDER Sebastián Lelio, Ed Guiney, Juliette Howell, Andrew Lowe, Tessa Ross, Alice Birch, Emma Donoghue
Will Win: Aftersun.
Should Win: Empire of Light.
Yes! I’ve managed to see ALL of the films in this category for the first time! Such a fantastic array of films to choose from. So difficult. I really hope Brian and Charles wins it so Charles Petrescu can go and accept the award!
Did Win: The Banshees of Inisherin.
I thought they wouldn’t give the Best British Film to the winner of the Best Film…. so this doesn’t bode well for Banshees and the top prize methinks.
Film Not In The English Language
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Edward Berger, Malte Grunert
- ARGENTINA, 1985 Santiago Mitre, Producer(s) TBC
- CORSAGE Marie Kreutzer, Alexander Glehr
- DECISION TO LEAVE Park Chan-wook, Ko Dae-seok
- THE QUIET GIRL Colm Bairéad, Cleona Ní Chrualaoi
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Should Win: The Quiet Girl.
Again, I’m just so happy that this year I’ve seen all these nominated films. But AQotWF has had SO many nominations that I think it should be a shoe-in for this one. But my pick would be the exquisite Irish movie “The Quiet Girl”.
Did Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
As expected.
Documentary
- ALL THAT BREATHES* Shaunak Sen, Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann
- ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John Lyons
- FIRE OF LOVE Sara Dosa, Shane Boris, Ina Fichman
- MOONAGE DAYDREAM Brett Morgen
- NAVALNY* Daniel Roher, Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae
Will Win: Moonage Daydream.
Should Win: Moonage Daydream.
It wasn’t to my personal taste, but I can see he quality in “Moonage Daydream”.
Did Win: Navalny.
Dammit! One of only 3 feature films I haven’t seen this year.
Animated Film
- GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, Alex Bulkley
- MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON* Dean Fleisher Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, Paul Mezey
- PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH Joel Crawford, Mark Swift
- TURNING RED Domee Shi, Lindsey Collins
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinnochio.
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinnochio.
I didn’t have the same love for Pinnochio as many others have, but I can appreciate its artistry. I think this is another of the shoe-ins.
Did Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinnochio.
As expected.
Casting
- AFTERSUN Lucy Pardee
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Simone Bär
- ELVIS Nikki Barrett, Denise Chamian
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Sarah Halley Finn
- TRIANGLE OF SADNESS Pauline Hansson
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once.
Should Win: Triangle of Sadness.
Did Win: Elvis.
Cinematography
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT James Friend
- THE BATMAN Greig Fraser
- ELVIS Mandy Walker
- EMPIRE OF LIGHT Roger Deakins
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK Claudio Miranda
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Should Win: Empire of Light.
I’ve actually changed my “Will Win” from Top Gun: Maverick to AQotWF. We’ll see.
Did Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Glad I changed my mind on this one!
Editing
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Sven Budelmann
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
- ELVIS Jonathan Redmond, Matt Villa
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Paul Rogers
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK Eddie Hamilton
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once.
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick.
I originally had “Top Gun Maverick” as my Will Win, but the argument of Scott Forbes on our podcast (Flickering Dreams) has convinced me to change it.
Did Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once.
At least it picked up something!
Production Design
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Christian M. Goldbeck, Ernestine Hipper
- BABYLON Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
- THE BATMAN James Chinlund, Lee Sandales
- ELVIS Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn
- GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO Curt Enderle, Guy Davis
Will Win: Elvis.
Should Win: Elvis.
Hmm – tricky category to call. Might also go to Babylon or even Pinnochio.
Did Win: Babylon.
Wrong!
Costume Design
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Lisy Christl
- AMSTERDAM J.R. Hawbaker, Albert Wolsky
- BABYLON Mary Zophres
- ELVIS Catherine Martin
- MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS Jenny Beavan
Will Win: Babylon.
Should Win: Mrs Harris Goes to Paris.
Did Win: Elvis
Wrong again!
Make Up & Hair
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Heike Merker
- THE BATMAN Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, Zoe Tahir
- ELVIS Jason Baird, Mark Coulier, Louise Coulston, Shane Thomas
- ROALD DAHL’S MATILDA THE MUSICAL Laura Blount, Naomi Donne, Barrie Gower, Sharon Martin
- THE WHALE Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin, Adrien Morot
Will Win: The Whale.
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Did Win: Elvis.
Wrong still yet again!
Sound
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil, Markus Stemler
- AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
- ELVIS Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson, Wayne Pashley
- TÁR Deb Adair, Stephen Griffiths, Andy Shelley, Steve Single, Roland Winke
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor, Mark Weingarten
Will Win: Tár.
Should Win: Tár.
I originally had Avatar as the winner of this one, but I’m going with my “Should Win” instead – a film all about sound!
Did Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Blimey – how many is that now??
Special Visual Effects
- ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller, Frank Petzold
- AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon
- THE BATMAN Russell Earl, Dan Lemmon, Anders Langlands, Dominic Tuohy
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE Jeff Desom, Ethan Feldbau, Jonathan Kombrinck, Zak Stoltz
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK Seth Hill, Scott R. Fisher, Bryan Litson, Ryan Tudhope
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water.
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water.
I think this is another one nailed on.
Did Win: Avatar: The Way of Water.
At least I got this technical category right!
British Short Animation
- THE BOY, THE MOLE, THE FOX AND THE HORSE Peter Baynton, Charlie Mackesy, Cara Speller, Hannah Minghella
- MIDDLE WATCH John Stevenson, Aiesha Penwarden, Giles Healy
- YOUR MOUNTAIN IS WAITING Hannah Jacobs, Zoe Muslim, Harriet Gillian
Will Win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse.
Should Win: Middle Watch.
Loved the short animation Middle Watch, but I’ve assumed the jugganaut here will win.
Did Win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse.
British Short Film
- THE BALLAD OF OLIVE MORRIS* Alex Kayode-Kay
- BAZIGAGA* Jo Ingabire Moys, Stephanie Charmail
- BUS GIRL* Jessica Henwick, Louise Palmkvist Hansen
- A DRIFTING UP* Jacob Lee
- AN IRISH GOODBYE* Tom Berkeley, Ross White
I didn’t get to see any of these, so can’t select.
Did Win: An Irish Goodbye.
EE Rising Star Award
An award voted for by the public. (The links are to my favourite of their films in 2022).
Will Win: Naomi Ackie.
Should Win: Emma Mackey.
These are all great actors who have all impressed me this year. It’s a public vote and I think Ackie will get it (for the role in “I Wanna Dance with Somebody”). But my “Should Win” pick is Emma Mackey for her roles in “Death on the Nile” and – my No. 3 film of last year – “Emily”.
Did Win: Emma Mackey.
Fabulous! Delighted for this one.
The BAFTA Fellowship
Awarded to costume designer Sandy Powell.
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