One Mann’s Movies Will Win / Should Win / Did Win for the BAFTAs 2019
It’s that time again when the glitterati of the film world put on their tuxes and sit uncomfortably in the Royal Albert Hall hoping for their names to be called – that is, other than Bryan Singer!
Joanna Lumley will again host the awards… drink a shot every time she says “wonderful”!
Here are my predictions with my traditional “Will Win, Should Win”s for tonight’s categories. As always, there are key films (marked with *) that I have yet to see (shame on me) and in some categories I will take a “bye” due to complete lack of coverage.
I’ll update this post during the televised event (9pm tonight on BBC1) with the “Did Win” results.
14 out of 18 of the categories I went for…. almost the same as last year…. this is my dementia test!
BEST FILM
BlacKkKlansman*
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma**
A Star Is Born
(** I only (finally!) watched “Roma” this afternoon and have still to write up my review!)
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: The Favourite
Did Win: Roma
While my heart is with Green Book in this category (and I would LOVE that to win), what I think will happen is that the voting will go with:
- The Favourite” for best British film and
- “Roma” as winning the top award.
And “Roma” really is a remarkable piece of work! Very impressed! But while I think “Roma” will take top honours at the Oscars, the BAFTA often goes with something more aligned with the populist view, and “The Favourite” is slightly more of a mainstream film than the subtitled “Roma”.
But it feels a pleasantly open category this year: Bohemian Rhapsody might go and still win either or both of these catagories!
Outstanding British Film
Beast*
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
McQueen*
Stan & Ollie
You Were Never Really Here
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: You Were Never Really Here
Did Win: The Favourite
As above, I think that’s the way it will go. But my ‘Should Win’ is based on “The Favourite” getting Best Picture, in which case I’d love to see Lynn Ramsey’s “You Were Never Really Here” pick this one up. But I could be wrong. “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Stan & Ollie” would both be strong contenders in my book: a generally robust category.
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Glenn Close (The Wife)*
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)*
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Will Win: Olivia Colman
Should Win: Olivia Colman
Did Win: Olivia Colman (Fabulous! Best most rambling speech of the night! #nationaltreasure ).
This is an out-and-out wrestle (bring on the mud!) between Olivia Colman and Glenn Close. I think Close will win out at the Oscars since – despite “Air Force One” and that silk blouse! – she hasn’t a statue and has such longevity in the industry. But I hope that home soil will send the BAFTA Colman’s way. As someone who in the last year has been well and truly cemented onto the fourth pedestal in Trafalger Square as a “national treasure” it’s well deserved.
BEST LEADING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Christian Bale (Vice)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Will Win: Rami Malek
Should Win: Christian Bale
Did Win: Rami Malek
Again I’m a bit conflicted since I loved Mortensen’s performance in “Green Book”. But Bale’s performance in “Vice” was extraordinary, and I think deserves the award. But again on home soil and with his Golden Gloves and SAG momentum, I think it might be Rami Malek’s night.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Will Win: Claire Foy
Should Win: Rachel Weisz
Did Win: Rachel Weisz (Yayy… delighted about this one).
Oh my… this is a wide open category with superb performances from all five ladies. The one for me at the back of this pack (which probably means she’ll win!) is Amy Adams. But of the rest, it’s a tough choice. I’ve plumped for Claire Foy, who has had a very strong year of movie momentum off the back of her work on “The Crown”. But my own personal choice would be Rachel Weisz (she would ALWAYS be my personal choice!) for her spirited and Machiavellian performance in “The Favourite”.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)*
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)*
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Did Win: Mahershala Ali
Another tough category. I’m blinded in 40% of the nominees on this one which makes it difficult to call. A lot of noise is going on outside the actual films in this category as well:
- Rockwell was simply brilliant as George W. Bush, but his win last year for “Three Billboards” might stack against him.
- There’s certainly a lot of love in the room for Richard E. Grant’s ecstatic responses on social media to his late-in-life awards nomination success, and he is a home boy here.
- And the furore about the lack of liaison with Dr Shirley’s family in “Green Book” might tinge the voter’s view of Mahershala Ali.
But I tend to think the BAFTA voters are more immune to such chatter than the Academy, so I’ll stick with my belief that Ali’s superlative performance as Dr Shirley should take the prize.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Wilmott*
Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty*
First Man – Josh Singer
If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born – Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Eric Roth
Again, I’m 40% down. And I’ve a feeling that the award might lie in that undiscovered country. So I’ll take a guess at this one.
Will Win: BlackKkKlansman
Should Win: BlackKkKlansman
Did Win: BlackKkKlansman (It wasn’t a guess… I of course knew it all along!! 😉 )
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Cold War – Janusz Glowacki, Pawel Pawlikowski*
The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Green Book – Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga
Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
Vice – Adam McKay
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: The Favourite
Did Win: The Favourite
Reminds me that I really really want to get to see “Cold War” as it was one of the trailers that most appealed to me last year. Again my heart is with “Green Book” on this one. But I think this will go with the quirky screenplay (four letter words and all) for “The Favourite”. I think some of the more irritating quirks of the “Vice screenplay will count against it.
RISING STAR
Letitia Wright (she was in “Avengers Infinity War“, “Black Panther“, “Ready Player One” and “The Commuter“)
Jessie Buckley (she was in “Beast”*)
Cynthia Erivo (she was in “Bad Times at the El Royale” and “Widows“)
Lakeith Stanfield (he was in “Sorry to Bother You”* and “The Girl in the Spider’s Web“)
Barry Keoghan (he was in “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”*, “Dunkirk” and “American Animals”*)
Will Win: Letitia Wright
Should Win: Letitia Wright
Did Win: Letitia Wright (Damn… I knew I should have put £1000 on her to win! What a powerful religious speech as well… that will do her no end of good for casting in the US in the future! )
As this is a category that is voted on my the public, this is almost as much as a shoe-in for Letitia Wright as anyone could hope to have! The Marvel fan-boys and girls will make it so! I have championed Cynthia Erivo this year for her two roles last year, but I’ve also loved Ms Wright’s presence, particularly in “Black Panther” where she made the screen come alive.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Incredibles 2*
Isle of Dogs*
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse*
Oh dear! I really don’t do animated do I? I’ll pass on officially guessing this category. A lot of people I know have rated Spider-Verse as their top film of the year, but whether this aligns with the voter’s view is another matter.
Did Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
BEST DIRECTOR
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)*
Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War)*
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Did Win: Alfonso Cuarón
To me this should be a toss up between Cuarón and Lanthimos: but you know my negative views of “A Star is Born” which don’t seem to be shared by many! As an exercise in direction, “Roma” is tough to better.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Bohemian Rhapsody
Cold War*
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Roma
Did Win: Roma (Very well deserved…. simply brilliant).
My personal favourite cinematography was for “First Man” which achieved the required epic-ness. But in terms of sheer bravado “Roma” is an extraordinary piece of film-making. Long takes and brilliant slow pans, with perfect lighting and colour-balance (if that isn’t a ridiculous think to say for a black-and-white film).
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Apostasy – Daniel Kokotajlo (Writer/Director)*
Beast – Michael Pearce (Writer/Director), Lauren Dark (Producer)* (pictured above)
A Cambodian Spring – Chris Kelly (Writer/Director/Producer)*
Pili – Leanne Welham (Writer/Director), Sophie Harman (Producer)*
Ray & Liz – Richard Billingham (Writer/Director), Jacqui Davies (Producer)*
Not seen any of these films, so opting out of comment here.
Did Win: Beast.
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Capernaum*
Cold War*
Dogman*
Roma
Shoplifters* (pictured above)
Again, so unsighted on these that it would be unfair to comment. “Roma” is probably the likely winner, although I know there’s a lot of love out there for the Japanese film “Shoplifters”.
Did Win: Roma.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Free Solo*
McQueen*
RBG*
They Shall Not Grow Old
Three Identical Strangers*
Did Win: Free Solo.
Man… I don’t do animation… I don’t do documentaries either! I’d like to think that “They Shall Not Grow Old” will get the nod here, particularly in a UK-based award, since Jackson’s WW1 experience was a technical miracle. But I’ve heard others rave about both “Free Solo” and “Three Identical Strangers”, so who knows.
BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC
BlacKkKlansman*
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs*
Mary Poppins Returns
A Star Is Born
Will Win: A Star is Born
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Did Win: A Star is Born
I’m again 40% down on this one. I’d be really irritated if either “A Star is Born” or “Mary Poppins Returns” wins for this one, but I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that “A Star is Born” will get this as a consolation prize on the night. But I’d give it to Nicholas Britell for his mesmerising score for “Beale Street”.
EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
Vice
Will Win: First Man
Should Win: First Man
Did Win: Vice
I thought the editing of First Man was extraordinarily good, but “Vice” came a close second for me.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: The Favourite
Did Win: The Favourite
I’ve a feeling that “The Favourite” might sweep some of these technical awards this year. But First Man recreated the 60’s brilliantly. And with a strong British contingent, perhaps the otherwise disappointing “Grindelwald” might pick this one up.
COSTUME DESIGN
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs*
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Mary Queen of Scots
Did Win: The Favourite.
I will stick with my hunch for a strong crop of awards for “The Favourite”. But I would personally give this one to “Mary Queen of Scots”.
MAKE UP & HAIR
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Stan & Ollie
Vice
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: The Favourite
Did Win: The Favourite
There might be a lot of love here for “Stan and Ollie”, since the make-up (particularly for John C. Reilly’s Oliver Hardy) was exceptional. And the Christian Bale transformation into Cheney is uncanny.
SOUND
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born
Will Win: A Quiet Place
Should Win: A Quiet Place
Did Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Although ironic, “A Quiet Place” might win this one. I said in my review “If there is one Oscar for February 2019 that I think should already be a shoe-in for a nomination, if not a win, it is the sound team led by Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn: breathtakingly spectacular.” So I’d better stick by my guns! I also thought that the sound of “First Man” was great as well, so I wouldn’t be disappointed if this wins.
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
First Man
Ready Player One
Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Should Win: First Man
Did Win: Black Panther (well… clearly the voters didn’t agree with my “dodgy as hell” comment!).
I think this will probably go Marvel’s way, as they’ve had such a good year. As I described the special effects from some scenes in “Black Panther” as “dodgy as hell”, I’ve plumped for “Infinity War” for this one. But I would personally go for the quieter but much more impressive effects in “First Man”.
British Short Animation
Awarded to: Rough House
British Short Film
Awarded to: 73 Cows
BAFTA Fellowship
Awarded to: Thelma Schoonmaker (Editor)
