The 93rd Academy Awards take place next Sunday (April 25th), so in the usual tradition here are my Oscar predictions on as to which movies will be carrying home the golden figurine on the night…. and which I think should be doing so!
As I have repeatedly moaned about, the inability to see some of these movies before the event (specifically for “Nomadland” and “The Father”) is incredibly frustrating! And with a very strange year at the movies, I am generally more unsighted in some of these categories than I would like to be. So some of these predictions are taken from my expectations given the BAFTA results.
This version of the post updated with the results of the Sunday night / Monday morning ceremony.
My score on the night was 14/19 which I can’t complain about. Was 10/11 at one point.
BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES
- THE FATHER – David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
- JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH – Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers
- MANK – Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
- MINARI – Christina Oh, Producer
- NOMADLAND – Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers
- PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers
- SOUND OF METAL – Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
- THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 – Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers
Will Win: Nomadland.
Should Win: Promising Young Woman.
Did Win: Nomadland.
All of the momentum for this Oscar seems to be with Nomadland, so it’s hugely frustrating that I can’t get to see it to form a judgement myself. But Emerald Fennell’s masterpiece of revenge gets my vote for the best of this bunch.
Bonkers that this wasn’t the final award of the night. Still supremely irritated I wasn’t able to watch this before the awards. Still – comes out on Friday!
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES
- VIOLA DAVIS – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- ANDRA DAY – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
- VANESSA KIRBY – Pieces of a Woman
- FRANCES MCDORMAND – Nomadland
- CAREY MULLIGAN – Promising Young Woman
Will Win: Frances McDormand.
Should Win: Andra Day.
Did Win: Frances McDormand.
Wow. What a difficult category to call this year. My early money was on Vanessa Kirby for the Oscar, but since then I’ve seen all of the others (apart from Frances McDormand, obvs!) Again, the momentum seems to be behind Nomadland – – but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the others were to win this one. All fantastic performances.
Short and simple speech!
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES
- RIZ AHMED – Sound of Metal
- CHADWICK BOSEMAN – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- ANTHONY HOPKINS – The Father
- GARY OLDMAN – Mank
- STEVEN YEUN – Minari
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman.
Should Win: Chadwick Boseman.
Did Win: Anthony Hopkins.
Again, I’m unsighted of Anthony Hopkins’ BAFTA-winning performance, due to its June release. But Chadwick Boseman’s performance in Ma Rainey was truly spectacular, and given his passing I suspect it will carry the Hollywood votes for the posthumous Oscar award.
Wow – didn’t expect that. Congrats to Mr Hopkins. Another British win!
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES
- MARIA BAKALOVA – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
- GLENN CLOSE – Hillbilly Elegy
- OLIVIA COLMAN – The Father
- AMANDA SEYFRIED – Mank
- YUH-JUNG YOUN – Minari
Will Win: Yuh-Jung Youn.
Should Win: Amanda Seyfried.
Did Win: Yuh-Jung Youn.
I find this really difficult to call. Yuh-Jung Youn – the quirky grandmother from “Minari” won the BAFTA and seems to be firm favourite. But Seyfried gave, I thought, a career-best performance, so will plump with that for my vote. (I think “Mank” might get more love at the Oscars than with BAFTA). But then, with 8 nominations and no win, I wouldn’t bet against the Academy throwing a wild-card and giving it to Close.
I feel sorry for Glenn Close – eight times and no win. But very happy for Yuh-Jung Youn. Wonderfully scatty speech (as for the BAFTA)!
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES
- SACHA BARON COHEN – The Trial of the Chicago 7
- DANIEL KALUUYA – Judas and the Black Messiah
- LESLIE ODOM, JR. – One Night in Miami…
- PAUL RACI – Sound of Metal
- LAKEITH STANFIELD – Judas and the Black Messiah
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya.
Should Win: Leslie Odom Jr.
Did Win: Daniel Kaluuya.
This one is surely a shoe-in for Kaluuya, and deservedly so – it’s a marvellously powerful performance. But I just loved Odom Jnr’s performance as Sam Cooke in “One Night in Miami”, so I’m going to STUBBORNLY keep that as my “Should Win”! This is certainly a strong category this year, with Paul Raci in “Sound of Metal” being fabulous, as was Stanfield who’s unfortunate I think to be so much in Kaluuya’s shadow here.
Fabulous start to the evening for the UK…. Emerald Fennell and now Daniel Kaluuya. A speech that was nearer a prayer than an acceptance speech. OK…until the “they had sex” comment!!!! The look on his mum’s face…. Hahaha.
DIRECTING
NOMINEES
- ANOTHER ROUND – Thomas Vinterberg
- MANK – David Fincher
- MINARI – Lee Isaac Chung
- NOMADLAND – Chloé Zhao
- PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Emerald Fennell
Will Win: Chloé Zhao.
Should Win: Emerald Fennell.
Did Win: Chloé Zhao.
With apologies to Ms Zhao, since I haven’t seen Nomadland, I have to go with my ‘film of the year so far’ – “Promising Young Woman” – for the directing Oscar. (I’ve also yet to see “Another Round”. But as this is also in the Foreign Film category it seems unlikely to win here…. but we said the same about “Parasite” last year, and look what happened!).
Oscar history is made! First woman of colour to win (and only the second woman!). “People at birth are inherently good”. Good motto.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
NOMINEES
- JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH – Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
- MINARI – Written by Lee Isaac Chung
- PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Written by Emerald Fennell
- SOUND OF METAL – Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
- THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 – Written by Aaron Sorkin
Will Win: Promising Young Woman.
Should Win: Promising Young Woman.
Did Win: Promising Young Woman.
It’s possible that the Oscar here might go to Sorkin, but I think Hollywood will follow the BAFTA’s in appreciating Emerald Fennell’s fresh approach.
YES, YES, YES!!!! Love it. First Oscar of the evening and a great result!
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
NOMINEES
- BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM: DELIVERY OF PRODIGIOUS BRIBE TO AMERICAN REGIME FOR MAKE BENEFIT ONCE GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN – Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
- THE FATHER – Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
- NOMADLAND – Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
- ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI… – Screenplay by Kemp Powers
- THE WHITE TIGER – Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani
Will Win: Nomadland.
Should Win: One Night in Miami.
Did Win: The Father.
As I’m unsighted of both “Nomadland” and “The Father” I can’t really call this one. It was great to see “The White Tiger” nominated for an Oscar, but I think you’d be a brave man to put any money on it to win!
Now I want to see this movie all the more!
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
NOMINEES
- DA 5 BLOODS – Terence Blanchard
- MANK – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
- MINARI – Emile Mosseri
- NEWS OF THE WORLD – James Newton Howard
- SOUL – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
Will Win: Soul.
Should Win: News of the World.
Did Win: Soul.
“News of the World” is my personal favourite, but I think the “Soul” team will win out here.
And it did.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
NOMINEES
- FIGHT FOR YOU – from Judas and the Black Messiah; Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
- HEAR MY VOICE – from The Trial of the Chicago 7; Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
- HUSAVIK – from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga; Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
- IO SÌ (SEEN) – from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se); Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
- SPEAK NOW – from One Night in Miami…; Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
Will Win: Husavik.
Should Win: Husavik.
Did Win: Fight for You.
I’m sticking my neck out here, but I would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE for the Eurovision song to win this one. It’s magnificent, and having seen the excitement of the mayor of Husavik (on #BBCBreakfast), a win here would get the best response!! After that, I thought “Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah” was pretty good.
Bit of a surprise that “Fight for You” won this one. My heart was with “Husavik”, but my head was really suggesting that “Speak Now” was really the likely winner.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
NOMINEES
- JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH – Sean Bobbitt
- MANK – Erik Messerschmidt
- NEWS OF THE WORLD – Dariusz Wolski
- NOMADLAND – Joshua James Richards
- THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 – Phedon Papamichael
Will Win: Nomadland.
Should Win: Mank.
Did Win: Mank.
I suspect this one will be between “Nomadland” and “Mank”. The black and white crispness of “Mank” I thought was simply wonderful.
Pleased with that. Doesn’t help my score for the night, but well deserved. A lot of folks seem not to like Mank, but I thought it looked fantastic.
FILM EDITING
NOMINEES
- THE FATHER – Yorgos Lamprinos
- NOMADLAND – Chloé Zhao
- PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – Frédéric Thoraval
- SOUND OF METAL – Mikkel E. G. Nielsen
- THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 – Alan Baumgarten
Will Win: Sound of Metal.
Should Win: Sound of Metal.
Did Win: Sound of Metal.
Stuck my neck out on this one, since the money seemed to be with “The Trial of the Chicago 7” – but helped my score!
PRODUCTION DESIGN
NOMINEES
- THE FATHER – Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
- MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
- MANK – Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
- NEWS OF THE WORLD – Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
- TENET – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom .
Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Did Win: Mank.
SOUND
NOMINEES
- GREYHOUND – Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
- MANK – Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
- NEWS OF THE WORLD – Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
- SOUL – Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
- SOUND OF METAL – Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michellee Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh
Will Win: Sound of Metal.
Should Win: Sound of Metal.
Did Win: Sound of Metal.
Simply magnificent sound design. Can’t see this losing!
And indeed it didn’t. No surprise there.
VISUAL EFFECTS
NOMINEES
- LOVE AND MONSTERS – Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
- THE MIDNIGHT SKY – Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins
- MULAN – Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
- THE ONE AND ONLY IVAN – Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
- TENET – Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher
Will Win: Tenet.
Should Win: Tenet.
Did Win: Tenet.
I’m astonishingly short sighted on this set of films this year! But “Tenet” is surely the favourite here (delivered by the London-based DNEG).
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
NOMINEES
- ONWARD – Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
- OVER THE MOON – Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
- A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON – Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley
- SOUL – Pete Docter and Dana Murray
- WOLFWALKERS – Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants
Will Win: Soul.
Should Win: Soul.
Did Win: Soul.
COSTUME DESIGN
NOMINEES
- EMMA – Alexandra Byrne
- MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – Ann Roth
- MANK – Trish Summerville
- MULAN – Bina Daigeler
- PINOCCHIO – Massimo Cantini Parrini
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom .
Should Win: Emma.
Did Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Ma Rainey’s will win – and it’s probably justly deserved…. but I just love the costuming in (the wickedly overlooked) “Emma”, and if I could buy Johnny Flynn’s long yellow coat, I would!
Can’t argue with this one.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
NOMINEES
- EMMA – Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
- HILLBILLY ELEGY – Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
- MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson
- MANK – Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
- PINOCCHIO – Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti
Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Did Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.
Can’t argue with this one either.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
NOMINEES
- ANOTHER ROUND – Denmark
- BETTER DAYS – Hong Kong
- COLLECTIVE – Romania
- THE MAN WHO SOLD HIS SKIN – Tunisia
- QUO VADIS, AIDA? – Bosnia and Herzegovina
Will Win: Another Round.
Should Win: Another Round.
Did Win: Another Round.
I haven’t seen any of these, so will just go with the BAFTA vote on this prediction for the Oscar. As this is also nominated in the main Directors category, it would seem a sure bet for this one.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
NOMINEES
- COLLECTIVE – Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
- CRIP CAMP – Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
- THE MOLE AGENT – Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
- MY OCTOPUS TEACHER – Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster
- TIME – Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn
I haven’t seen any of these, so won’t provide a prediction for the Oscar.
Did Win: My Octopus Teacher.
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
NOMINEES
- COLETTE – Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard
- A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION – Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
- DO NOT SPLIT – Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
- HUNGER WARD – Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
- A LOVE SONG FOR LATASHA – Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan
I haven’t seen any of these, so won’t provide a prediction for the Oscar.
Did Win: Colette.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
NOMINEES
- BURROW – Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
- GENIUS LOCI – Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
- IF ANYTHING HAPPENS I LOVE YOU – Will McCormack and Michael Govier
- OPERA – Erick Oh
- YES-PEOPLE – Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson
I haven’t seen any of these, so won’t provide a prediction for the Oscar.
Did Win: If Anything Happens, I Love You.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
NOMINEES
- FEELING THROUGH – Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
- THE LETTER ROOM – Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
- THE PRESENT – Farah Nabulsi and Ossama Bawardi
- TWO DISTANT STRANGERS – Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe
- WHITE EYE – Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman
I haven’t seen any of these, so won’t provide a prediction for the Oscar.
Did Win: Two Distant Strangers.
Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award
Did Win: Went to the MPTF organisation that runs the campus/home for ex-professionals in LA.
