It’s the big one… again.
So, it was only in doing my BAFTA predictions last week that I realised just what a difficult task this is this year. It’s a really varied field and – although there seem to be three that I will call out as shoe-ins below – many of the categories seem particularly hard to predict. I was thus pretty pleased with my 12/20 score for the BAFTAs… will I be as smug about the Oscar results though?
Films I have not seen are marked with *. There are hyperlinks on each of the films to my review (with “Parasite” review still to follow).
I’ll be updating this post throughout the night during the Oscar telecast.
Wow! What a surprise Best Film winner! I was 13/19 on the night this year. Don’t think I’ll ever beat my 16 score in 2018, but I’ll take that!
Best motion picture of the year nominees:
FORD V FERRARI – Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold, Producers
THE IRISHMAN – Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers
JOJO RABBIT – Carthew Neal, Taika Waititi and Chelsea Winstanley, Producers
JOKER – Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Producers
LITTLE WOMEN – Amy Pascal, Producer
MARRIAGE STORY – Noah Baumbach and David Heyman, Producers
1917 – Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall, Producers
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD – David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino, Producers
PARASITE – Kwak Sin Ae and Bong Joon Ho, Producers
It blew the field away at the BAFTAs… but then there was the British bias to consider. But as the most immersive film experience of recent years, 1917 has firmly cemented itself at my number 1 film of 2020 so far. But after seeing “Parasite” last night, I can understand what all the fuss has been about! So, who knows? It was a surprise that the South Korean film even got a nomination… but could we be in for an even bigger surprise tonight?
Will win: 1917.
Should win: 1917.
Did win: Parasite.
Achievement in directing nominees:
THE IRISHMAN – Martin Scorsese
JOKER – Todd Phillips
1917 – Sam Mendes
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD – Quentin Tarantino
PARASITE – Bong Joon Ho
I’m again going with my gut (and the BAFTAs) on this one. But, again, perhaps Bong Joon Ho is in with a shout with this one.
Will win: 1917 – Sam Mendes.
Should win: 1917 – Sam Mendes.
Did win: Parasite – Bong Joon Ho.
Performance by an actor in a leading role nominees:
Antonio Banderas in PAIN AND GLORY
Leonardo DiCaprio in ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
Adam Driver in MARRIAGE STORY
Joaquin Phoenix in JOKER
Jonathan Pryce in THE TWO POPES
This, I think, will be one of the three shoe-ins I’ll predict for the night. It would be a brave punter I think to put money on anyone else for this. I hope he doesn’t repeat his rather discourteous and dispiriting speech as he did at the BAFTAs. If he feels so strongly about the lack of diversity, will he take a stronger stand and reject the award? Could this be another ‘Sacheen Littlefeather’ moment in Oscar history?
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix.
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix.
Did win: Joaquin Phoenix.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role nominees:
Tom Hanks in A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
Anthony Hopkins in THE TWO POPES
Al Pacino in THE IRISHMAN
Joe Pesci in THE IRISHMAN
Brad Pitt in ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
I have a lot of love for Pesci and Pacino in “The Irishman”. But my vote would go with Hopkins’ quiet portrayal of the retiring Pope. But the clever money is on Pitt to repeat his Golden Globe and BAFTA win. He’s been nominated three times before and never won, so the “he’s due” wave will be behind him winning in any case. Assuming he wins, this is the speech of the night I am most looking forward to!
Will win: Brad Pitt.
Should win: Anthony Hopkins
Did win: Brad Pitt.
Performance by an actress in a leading role nominees:
Cynthia Erivo in HARRIET*
Scarlett Johansson in MARRIAGE STORY
Saoirse Ronan in LITTLE WOMEN
Charlize Theron in BOMBSHELL
Renée Zellweger in JUDY
It’s the one major Oscar film I missed back in November, so I’ve not seen Cynthia Erivo… but that doesn’t really matter since she’s black (#satire!) Seriously, Erivo is a firm favourite at the movies after “Widows” and (particularly) “Bad Times at the El Royale”. But I am unsighted on her performance here. My choice would be Saoirse Ronan’s mesmerising performance in “Little Woman”. But this is surely the second shoe-in for Zellweger.
Will win: Renée Zellweger.
Should win: Saoirse Ronan.
Did win: Renée Zellweger.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role nominees:
Kathy Bates in RICHARD JEWELL*
Laura Dern in MARRIAGE STORY
Scarlett Johansson in JOJO RABBIT
Florence Pugh in LITTLE WOMEN
Margot Robbie in BOMBSHELL
The third shoe-in I think is Laura Dern, but again I think this is a general “she deserves one” award. My choice would be the miraculous Florence Pugh in “Little Women”. But I’m sure she’ll get many more chances in the future.
Will win: Laura Dern.
Should win: Florence Pugh.
Did win: Laura Dern.
Adapted screenplay nominees:
THE IRISHMAN – Screenplay by Steven Zaillian
JOJO RABBIT – Screenplay by Taika Waititi
JOKER – Written by Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
LITTLE WOMEN – Written for the screen by Greta Gerwig
THE TWO POPES – Written by Anthony McCarten
The BAFTAs went with Jojo Rabbit for this, which I thought was an odd choice. In the politically charged “SoWhiteMale” world of the Oscars, I just wonder if this is an opportunity to recognise a woman writer/director…. not that she doesn’t deserve this in her own right…. I thought this was a masterly re-telling of the story.
Will win: Little Women.
Should win: Little Women.
Did win: Jojo Rabbit.
Original screenplay nominees:
KNIVES OUT – Written by Rian Johnson
MARRIAGE STORY – Written by Noah Baumbach
1917 – Written by Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD – Written by Quentin Tarantino
PARASITE – Screenplay by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won, Story by Bong Joon Ho
I’d suggested “Knives Out” for my BAFTA prediction, but that was before I’d seen “Parasite”! An astonishing script.
Will win: Parasite.
Should win: Parasite.
Did win: Parasite.
Achievement in cinematography nominees:
THE IRISHMAN – Rodrigo Prieto
JOKER – Lawrence Sher
THE LIGHTHOUSE* – Jarin Blaschke
1917 – Roger Deakins
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD – Robert Richardson
I’d almost be willing to eat my hat on this one. 1917 is a masterpiece of cinematography for that “Night Window” scene alone.
Will win: 1917 – Roger Deakins
Should win: 1917 – Roger Deakins
Did win: 1917 – Roger Deakins
Achievement in film editing nominees:
FORD V FERRARI – Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland
THE IRISHMAN – Thelma Schoonmaker
JOJO RABBIT – Tom Eagles
JOKER – Jeff Groth
PARASITE – Yang Jinmo
This was my biggest triumph in my BAFTA predictions, albeit as “Le Mans ’66″…. so I’m going to try to repeat the trick.
Will win: Ford v Ferrari.
Should win: Ford v Ferrari.
Did win: Ford v Ferrari.
Best international feature film of the year nominees:
CORPUS CHRISTI* – Poland, Directed by Jan Komasa
HONEYLAND* – North Macedonia, Directed by Ljubo Stefanov and Tamara Kotevska
LES MISÉRABLES* – France, Directed by Ladj Ly
PAIN AND GLORY – Spain, Directed by Pedro Almodóvar
PARASITE – South Korea, Directed by Bong Joon Ho
Another ‘eat my hat’ moment…. Parasite must clean up here, surely?
Will win: Parasite.
Should win: Parasite.
Did win: Parasite.
Achievement in costume design nominees:
THE IRISHMAN – Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
JOJO RABBIT – Mayes C. Rubeo
JOKER – Mark Bridges
LITTLE WOMEN – Jacqueline Durran
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD – Arianne Phillips
Like, what do I know! I predicted “Judy” for the BAFTA, and that’s not even nominated here!
Will win: Little Women.
Should win: Little Women.
Did win: Little Women.
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling nominees:
BOMBSHELL – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker
JOKER – Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
JUDY – Jeremy Woodhead
MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL* – Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White
1917 – Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole
Again, no idea…. So I’ll go with the BAFTA winner here.
Will win: Bombshell.
Should win: Joker.
Did win: Bombshell.
Achievement in sound editing nominees:
FORD V FERRARI – Donald Sylvester
JOKER – Alan Robert Murray
1917 – Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD – Wylie Stateman
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER – Matthew Wood and David Acord
I’ve a feeling 1917 will mop up many of these technical categories. But my sound editing choice would go with my film editing choice on this one.
Will win: 1917.
Should win: Ford v Ferrari.
Did win: Ford v Ferrari.
Achievement in sound mixing nominees:
AD ASTRA – Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
FORD V FERRARI – Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow
JOKER – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
1917 – Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD – Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano
The sound on 1917 is almost as impressive as the cinematography.
Will win: 1917
Should win: 1917
Did win: 1917.
Achievement in visual effects nominees:
AVENGERS: ENDGAME – Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick
THE IRISHMAN – Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli
THE LION KING – Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman
1917 – Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER – Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy
That plane crash scene is spectacularly well done.
Will win: 1917.
Should win: 1917.
Did win: 1917.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score) nominees:
JOKER – Hildur Guðnadóttir
LITTLE WOMEN – Alexandre Desplat
MARRIAGE STORY – Randy Newman
1917 – Thomas Newman
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER – John Williams
My choice here would be 1917 with Little Women as a close second. But Mark Kermode – who knows much more about this stuff than me – thinks it would be a travesty if Guðnadóttir doesn’t walk away with this one.
Will win: Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir.
Should win: 1917 – Thomas Newman.
Did win: Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song) nominees:
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from TOY STORY 4 – Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from ROCKETMAN – Music by Elton John, Lyric by Bernie Taupin
“I’m Standing With You” from BREAKTHROUGH* – Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Into The Unknown” from FROZEN II* – Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“Stand Up” from HARRIET* – Music and Lyric by Joshuah Brian Campbell and Cynthia Erivo
Notwithstanding any potential “SoWhite” bias, “Stand Up” is the stand out song from this list in my view. This will have the auditorium on their feet.
Will win: “Stand Up” from Harriet.
Should win: “Stand Up” from Harriet.
Did win: “I’m going to love me again” from Rocketman.
Achievement in production design nominees:
THE IRISHMAN – Production Design: Bob Shaw, Set Decoration: Regina Graves
JOJO RABBIT – Production Design: Ra Vincent, Set Decoration: Nora Sopková
1917 – Production Design: Dennis Gassner, Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD – Production Design: Barbara Ling, Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
PARASITE – Production Design: Lee Ha Jun, Set Decoration: Cho Won Woo
If there was a “film choreography” award, 1917 would get it! But the extraordinary Salisbury plain sets, and the coordination of them, make 1917 my choice for this.
Will win: 1917.
Should win: 1917.
Did win: Once upon a Time… in Hollywood.
Best documentary feature nominees:
AMERICAN FACTORY* – Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert
THE CAVE* – Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod and Sigrid Dyekjær
THE EDGE OF DEMOCRACY* – Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris and Tiago Pavan
FOR SAMA* – Waad al-Kateab and Edward Watts
HONEYLAND* – Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska and Atanas Georgiev
As I haven’t seen any of these, I won’t make a prediction. My best wishes though will be with the Brits behind “For Sama”!
Did win: American Factory.
Best documentary short subject nominees:
IN THE ABSENCE* – Yi Seung-Jun and Gary Byung-Seok Kam
LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL)* – Carol Dysinger and Elena Andreicheva
LIFE OVERTAKES ME* – John Haptas and Kristine Samuelson
ST. LOUIS SUPERMAN* – Smriti Mundhra and Sami Khan
WALK RUN CHA-CHA* – Laura Nix and Colette Sandstedt
As I haven’t seen any of these, I won’t make a prediction.
Did win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If you’re a girl).
Best animated feature film of the year nominees:
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD* – Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis and Bonnie Arnold
I LOST MY BODY* – Jérémy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
KLAUS* – Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh and Marisa Román
MISSING LINK* – Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner and Travis Knight
TOY STORY 4 – Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen and Jonas Rivera
As I’ve only seen “Toy Story 4”, I won’t make a prediction. A surprise that Frozen II wasn’t nominated… Disney/Pixar must be pissed!
Did win: Toy Story 4.
Best animated short film nominees:
DCERA (DAUGHTER)* – Daria Kashcheeva
HAIR LOVE* – Matthew A. Cherry and Karen Rupert Toliver
KITBULL* – Rosana Sullivan and Kathryn Hendrickson
MEMORABLE* – Bruno Collet and Jean-François Le Corre
SISTER* – Siqi Song
As I haven’t seen any of these, I won’t make a prediction.
Did win: Hair Love.
Best live action short film nominees:
BROTHERHOOD* – Meryam Joobeur and Maria Gracia Turgeon
NEFTA FOOTBALL CLUB* – Yves Piat and Damien Megherbi
THE NEIGHBORS’ WINDOW* – Marshall Curry
SARIA* – Bryan Buckley and Matt Lefebvre
A SISTER* – Delphine Girard
As I haven’t seen any of these, I won’t make a prediction.
Did win: The Neighbor’s Widow.
