It’s Oscar Predictions time again! The 96th Academy Awards take place tonight, Sunday March 10th 2024. I’m sticking my neck out once again to predict who will win on the night. Will there be any major surprises this year? In most of the major awards, it’s actually difficult to see where those surprises will come from… but they will be BIG if they happen!
Once again, as for the BAFTAs, I will be head-to-head in my predictions with my Flickering Dreams colleague Scott Forbes (of the Forbes Film and TV Review on Facebook). Scott is unerringly accurate with his predictions for the Oscars, but we’ll see!
What makes the Oscars more exciting is that this is the one awards show that I place bets on… £5 on each of my “Will Win” predictions! But to be honest, so many of the betting odds are so short this year that I may not bother for some of the categories.
I will update this post on Monday with the “Did Win” results and let you know how I did!
Note: Films I have not yet been able to see are marked with a (*). Underlined hyperlinks take you to my full review of each film.
====
I’ll be updating the post during the night with the results as they come in. All updates in red!
19/23 for the night…. 83%. A personal record, so very happy about that! Good results all round I think.
====
Actress in a Supporting Role
- Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
- America Ferrera – Barbie
- Jodie Foster – Nyad
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
I really struggle to understand why the Academy came up with this shortlist. Where is Claire Foy for “All of Us Strangers”? Where is Rosamund Pike for “Saltburn”? And (although I wasn’t keen on the film in general) where is Sandra Hüller for The Zone of Interest? But this is surely a shoe-in for Da’Vine Joy Randolph following her BAFTA success: I can’t see anyone else pipping her.
Did Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
Surely one of the nailed on awards to start the night with. Thought the speech was going to be a blub-fest, but it turned out to be an emotional, but good speech.
===================
Best animated short
- Letter to a Pig
- Ninety-Five Senses
- Our Uniform
- Pachyderme
- War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (*)
Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko.
Should Win: Pachyderme.
Annoyingly, “War is Over” seems unavailable to stream which is really annoying. Given that the US tend to go a bundle over anything John Lennon, I have a feeling that this will steal the prize. My own personal choice would be the hauntingly subtle “Pachyderme”. Read my reviews of all of these films here.
Did Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko.
I’m on a roll so far!
===================
Best animated feature
- The Boy and the Heron (*)
- Elemental
- Nimona (*)
- Robot Dreams (*)
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Will Win: The Boy and the Heron
Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
I’m again very short on this category (again 3 short). I’m going to guess that this will go to “The Boy and the Heron”, which was a big hit in the US.
Did Win: The Boy and the Heron.
I really must try to see this film! But my streak is still complete!
===================
Best original screenplay
Will Win: The Holdovers.
Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall.
Again, this category feels quite open, but I can see “The Holdovers” winning through here ahead of the BAFTA winner “Anatomy of a Fall”. But it could go the other way, which I’d be happy with.
Did Win: Anatomy of a Fall.
Damn… knew I should have gone with Anatomy of a Fall as they were opening the envelope! Good choice though.
===================
Best adapted screenplay
Will Win: American Fiction.
Should Win: American Fiction.
This category feels more open and I can see “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” being in with a chance here. But I’m going with the BAFTA winner that kept me thoroughly entertained!
Did Win: American Fiction.
Delighted for Cord Jefferson. Very well deserved. One of my favourite films of this year so far. Great speech.
===================
Best make-up and hairstyling
- Golda (*)
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
- Society of the Snow
Will Win: Poor Things.
Should Win: Poor Things.
Did Win: Poor Things.
At least the first of my “Poor Things” clean sweep has come to pass.
===================
Best production design
Will Win: Poor Things.
Should Win: Poor Things.
Did Win: Poor Things.
No. 2 in my “Poor Things” hat-trick!
===================
Best costume design
Will Win: Poor Things.
Should Win: Poor Things.
As for the BAFTAs, I’m going to predict a clean sweep on these awards for “Poor Things”.
Did Win: Poor Things.
Yes! My 3/3 Poor Things hattrick came to pass! 7/8 so far at the Oscars so going well with my predictions.
===================
Best international feature
- Io Capitano (*)
- Perfect Days (*)
- Society of the Snow
- The Teachers’ Lounge (*)
- The Zone of Interest
Will Win: The Zone of Interest.
Should Win: Society of the Snow.
I’m rather short-sighted on this category, three short (which is annoying). As “The Zone of Interest” is in the Best Picture list (but is unlikely to win), logic dictates that it should walk with this one.
Did Win: The Zone of Interest.
Didn’t rate the film as much as most other people clearly have, but looked like an easy decision. The first time the UK has ever won the Best International Film.
===================
Best visual effects
- The Creator
- Godzilla Minus One
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
- Napoleon
Will Win: The Creator
Should Win: The Creator (with a special “bang for the buck” nod to “Godzilla Minus One”)
I originally had “Mission Impossible” as my “Will Win” selection here (for the train fight scenes), but then I thought about how false the ‘motorcycle up the mountain ramp’ scene looked and changed my mind!
Did Win: Godzilla Minus One.
Wow – didn’t see that coming…. but great effects for a tiny budget.
===================
Actor in a Supporting Role
- Sterling K Brown – American Fiction
- Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.
Should Win: Robert Downey Jr.
It’s actually surprising how many of these top awards feel like shoe-ins this year. I can’t see this one going anywhere else.
Did Win: Robert Downey Jr.
A first win for Downey Jr. Wow… what a comeback story. But the least surprise of the evening. I won 13p on my £5 bet!
===================
Best film editing
Will Win: Oppenheimer.
Should Win: Oppenheimer.
I think possibly “Anatomy of a Fall” stands a chance here, but my vote would go with “Oppenheimer” to add another to its tally.
Did Win: Oppenheimer.
===================
Best documentary short
- The ABCs of Book Banning
- The Barber of Little Rock
- Island In Between
- The Last Repair Shop
- Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó
Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Should Win: The Barber of Little Rock.
See my full review of these shorts here. I think this will either be between “The ABCs of Book Banning” (left-leading Academy) or “The Last Repair Shop” (LA_Based charitable work).
Did Win: The Last Repair Shop.
Yep… leaned the wrong way on this one.
===================
Best documentary feature
- Bobi Wine: The People’s President (*)
- The Eternal Memory (*)
- Four Daughters (*)
- To Kill a Tiger (*)
- 20 Days in Mariupol (*)
Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol.
Should Win: ???
Oh dear – how embarrassing…. I’m completely unsighted here! I’ll postulate a win for “20 Days in Mariupol” since that seems to have the critical and political running.
Did Win: 20 Days in Mariupol.
No surprise there. Up to 11/14 on the night so far. Good political speech.
===================
Best cinematography
- El Conde (*)
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Poor Things
Will Win: Oppenheimer.
Should Win: Oppenheimer.
Again, I can see this going to Hoyte van Hoytema for “Oppenheimer”.
Did Win: Oppenheimer.
A first Oscar win for van Hoytema. Well deserved.
===================
Best live action short
- The After
- Invincible
- Knight of Fortune
- Red, White and Blue
- The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.
Should Win: Red, White and Blue.
Wow… a really good set of Short Films again this year, doing battle. The elephant in the room is “Henry Sugar” and I suspect that will win. But the one I would really like to win would be “Red, White and Blue” which has a fabulous twist in it. Read my reviews of all of these films here.
Did Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.
As expected. But a shame the elephant won!
===================
Best sound
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: The Creator.
My personal choice would be for “The Creator” (which I commented on in my review). But I think the momentum is with the critical sound design for “The Zone of Interest”.
Did Win: The Zone of Interest.
Phew. Wasn’t sure about this one, but glad it went that way.
===================
Best original score
- American Fiction – Laura Karpman
- Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams
- Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson
- Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson
- Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix
Will Win: Oppenheimer.
Should Win: Oppenheimer.
I think this will go to Göransson. My one moment’s pause is that Robbie Robertson sadly passed away and there might be some swell of sympathy voting as a result. While this may also be John Williams final score, I don’t think its different enough to get the “so long and thanks for all the fish” votes.
Did Win: Oppenheimer.
As expected. Isn’t he young!!? And with 2 Oscars already!
===================
Best original song
- The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot (Diane Warren)
- I’m Just Ken – Barbie (Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt)
- It Never Went Away – American Symphony (Jon Batiste, Dan Wilson) (*)
- Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) – Killers of the Flower Moon (Scott George)
- What Was I Made For? – Barbie (Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell)
Will Win: What Was I Made For?
Should Win: What Was I Made For?
I can see Billie Eilish and Finneas getting their second Oscar in two years for their Barbie song.
Did Win: What Was I Made For? from Barbie.
Was a bit worried about that one for a moment. But the best song I think. 16/19 so far for me, and on the home stretch. Great brother and sister speech!
===================
Best actor
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro
- Colman Domingo – Rustin
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Will Win: Cillian Murphy.
Should Win: Cillian Murphy.
Again, this feels like a shoe-in for Murphy, with both Paul Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright being the only possible other contenders in my eyes.
Did Win: Cillian Murphy.
No surprise there!
===================
Best director
- Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet
- Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese
- Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
- Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos
- The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer
Will Win: Christopher Nolan.
Should Win: Christopher Nolan
I’d expect this to go with the Best Film this year.
Did Win: Christopher Nolan.
Again, absolutely sewn on. I won another 13p on my £5 bet! Up to 18/21. Hopefully heading for 20, a personal record!
===================
Best actress
- Annette Bening – Nyad
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro
- Emma Stone – Poor Things
Will Win: Lily Gladstone.
Should Win: Emma Stone.
Hmmm… this one is curious. Gladstone wasn’t even nominated at the BAFTAs: Stone took the award. But the US awards shows have consistently taken the same track (the safe ‘political’ option). I have no issues with Gladstone’s performance in the film: but personally, I would have chosen Stone, Mulligan and Hüller ahead of her in this category.
Did Win: Emma Stone.
Well, that’s spoiled my goal of getting to 20! But I can’t argue that it was the wrong decision.
===================
Best picture
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Will Win: Oppenheimer.
Should Win: Oppenheimer.
Yes, I know its the “boring choice” and I would be delighted to see “Poor Things”, “American Fiction” or “Past Lives” storm through for a surprising win. But the trend from the previous awards has been steady on this one.
Did Win: Oppenheimer.
Was Al Pacino hitting the bar before that Best Picture announcement? Most bizarre. But that went as expected. Closed the evening with 19/23.
===================
Emma Stone won…not Lily Gladstone for Best Actress. You must have been tired 😉
Oops… thanks… will amend.