It’s Oscar Predictions time again! The 96th Academy Awards take place tonight, Sunday March 10th 2024. I’m sticking my neck out once again to predict who will win on the night. Will there be any major surprises this year? In most of the major awards, it’s actually difficult to see where those surprises will come from… but they will be BIG if they happen!

Once again, as for the BAFTAs, I will be head-to-head in my predictions with my Flickering Dreams colleague Scott Forbes (of the Forbes Film and TV Review on Facebook). Scott is unerringly accurate with his predictions for the Oscars, but we’ll see!

What makes the Oscars more exciting is that this is the one awards show that I place bets on… £5 on each of my “Will Win” predictions! But to be honest, so many of the betting odds are so short this year that I may not bother for some of the categories.

I will update this post on Monday with the “Did Win” results and let you know how I did!

Note: Films I have not yet been able to see are marked with a (*). Underlined hyperlinks take you to my full review of each film.

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Actress in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

I really struggle to understand why the Academy came up with this shortlist. Where is Claire Foy for “All of Us Strangers”? Where is Rosamund Pike for “Saltburn”? And (although I wasn’t keen on the film in general) where is Sandra Hüller for The Zone of Interest? But this is surely a shoe-in for Da’Vine Joy Randolph following her BAFTA success: I can’t see anyone else pipping her.

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Best animated short

  • Letter to a Pig
  • Ninety-Five Senses
  • Our Uniform
  • Pachyderme
  • War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (*)

Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko.

Should Win: Pachyderme.

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Best animated feature

Will Win: The Boy and the Heron

Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

I’m again very short on this category (again 3 short). I’m going to guess that this will go to “The Boy and the Heron”, which was a big hit in the US.

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Best original screenplay

Will Win: The Holdovers.

Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall.

Again, this category feels quite open, but I can see “The Holdovers” winning through here ahead of the BAFTA winner “Anatomy of a Fall”. But it could go the other way, which I’d be happy with.

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Best adapted screenplay

Will Win: American Fiction.

Should Win: American Fiction.

This category feels more open and I can see “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things” being in with a chance here. But I’m going with the BAFTA winner that kept me thoroughly entertained!

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Best make-up and hairstyling

Will Win: Poor Things.

Should Win: Poor Things.

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Best production design

Will Win: Poor Things.

Should Win: Poor Things.

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Best costume design

Will Win: Poor Things.

Should Win: Poor Things.

As for the BAFTAs, I’m going to predict a clean sweep on these awards for “Poor Things”.

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Best international feature

Will Win: The Zone of Interest.

Should Win: Society of the Snow.

I’m rather short-sighted on this category, three short (which is annoying). As “The Zone of Interest” is in the Best Picture list (but is unlikely to win), logic dictates that it should walk with this one.

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Best visual effects

Will Win: The Creator

Should Win: The Creator (with a special “bang for the buck” nod to “Godzilla Minus One”)

I originally had “Mission Impossible” as my “Will Win” selection here (for the train fight scenes), but then I thought about how false the ‘motorcycle up the mountain ramp’ scene looked and changed my mind!

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Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.

Should Win: Robert Downey Jr.

It’s actually surprising how many of these top awards feel like shoe-ins this year. I can’t see this one going anywhere else.

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Best film editing

Will Win: Oppenheimer.

Should Win: Oppenheimer.

I think possibly “Anatomy of a Fall” stands a chance here, but my vote would go with “Oppenheimer” to add another to its tally.

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Best documentary short

  • The ABCs of Book Banning
  • The Barber of Little Rock
  • Island In Between
  • The Last Repair Shop
  • Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning

Should Win: The Barber of Little Rock.

See my full review of these shorts here. I think this will either be between “The ABCs of Book Banning” (left-leading Academy) or “The Last Repair Shop” (LA_Based charitable work).

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Best documentary feature

  • Bobi Wine: The People’s President (*)
  • The Eternal Memory (*)
  • Four Daughters (*)
  • To Kill a Tiger (*)
  • 20 Days in Mariupol (*)

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol.

Should Win: ???

Oh dear – how embarrassing…. I’m completely unsighted here! I’ll postulate a win for “20 Days in Mariupol” since that seems to have the critical and political running.

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Best cinematography

Will Win: Oppenheimer.

Should Win: Oppenheimer.

Again, I can see this going to Hoyte van Hoytema for “Oppenheimer”.

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Best live action short

  • The After
  • Invincible
  • Knight of Fortune
  • Red, White and Blue
  • The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.

Should Win: Red, White and Blue.

Wow… a really good set of Short Films again this year, doing battle. The elephant in the room is “Henry Sugar” and I suspect that will win. But the one I would really like to win would be “Red, White and Blue” which has a fabulous twist in it. Read my reviews of all of these films here.

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Best sound

Will Win: The Zone of Interest

Should Win: The Creator.

My personal choice would be for “The Creator” (which I commented on in my review). But I think the momentum is with the critical sound design for “The Zone of Interest”.

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Best original score

Will Win: Oppenheimer.

Should Win: Oppenheimer.

I think this will go to Göransson. My one moment’s pause is that Robbie Robertson sadly passed away and there might be some swell of sympathy voting as a result. While this may also be John Williams final score, I don’t think its different enough to get the “so long and thanks for all the fish” votes.

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Best original song

  • The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot (Diane Warren)
  • I’m Just Ken – Barbie (Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt)
  • It Never Went Away – American Symphony (Jon Batiste, Dan Wilson) (*)
  • Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) – Killers of the Flower Moon (Scott George)
  • What Was I Made For? – Barbie (Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell)

Will Win: What Was I Made For?

Should Win: What Was I Made For?

I can see Billie Eilish and Finneas getting their second Oscar in two years for their Barbie song.

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Best actor

Will Win: Cillian Murphy.

Should Win: Cillian Murphy.

Again, this feels like a shoe-in for Murphy, with both Paul Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright being the only possible other contenders in my eyes.

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Best director

Will Win: Christopher Nolan.

Should Win: Christopher Nolan

I’d expect this to go with the Best Film this year.

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Best actress

Will Win: Lily Gladstone.

Should Win: Emma Stone.

Hmmm… this one is curious. Gladstone wasn’t even nominated at the BAFTAs: Stone took the award. But the US awards shows have consistently taken the same track (the safe ‘political’ option). I have no issues with Gladstone’s performance in the film: but personally, I would have chosen Stone, Mulligan and Hüller ahead of her in this category.

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Best picture

Will Win: Oppenheimer.

Should Win: Oppenheimer.

Yes, I know its the “boring choice” and I would be delighted to see “Poor Things”, “American Fiction” or “Past Lives” storm through for a surprising win. But the trend from the previous awards has been steady on this one.

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By bobwp

Dr Bob Mann lives in Hampshire in the UK. Now retired from his job as an IT professional, he is owner of One Mann's Movies and an enthusiastic reviewer of movies as "Bob the Movie Man". Bob is also a regular film reviewer on BBC Radio Solent.

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Helen
7 months ago

Emma Stone won…not Lily Gladstone for Best Actress. You must have been tired 😉

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