The 94th Academy Awards are tomorrow night, March 27th 2022. Yes folks, it’s time for me to stick my semi-learned neck out again and face either glory or perpetual scorn with my 2022 Oscars predictions! In my previous efforts, and normally based on predicting the 19 main categories, I correctly estimated:
- 73% in 2021
- 68% in 2020
- 39% in 2019 (terrible!)
- 84% in 2018
- 61% in 2017
- 67% in 2016
So (apart from 2019) I’ve had a pretty consistent track record.
My adjudications on this year’s crop of wannabes, in each of the voting categories, is below. As always, I’ve marked any which I haven’t seen with asterisks.
For the first time ever, I have actually placed bets on all of my “Will Win”s: although, since I have mostly picked what turns out to be the favourites for this year’s categories, I won’t win much even if I get 100%!
Updated with the “Did Win!” results.
I got 16/19 this year so 84% matching my best ever! Very happy with that! Kicking myself that I didn’t pick the Bond song as one of the ones I missed. OF COURSE IT WAS GOING TO WIN!!!
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES
- JESSIE BUCKLEY – The Lost Daughter
- ARIANA DEBOSE – West Side Story
- JUDI DENCH – Belfast
- KIRSTEN DUNST – The Power of the Dog
- AUNJANUE ELLIS – King Richard
Will Win: Ariana DeBose
Should Win: Jessie Buckley
My one deviation in the acting awards from the “Will Win/Should Win” combos. I’d love Jessie Buckley to pick this one up, but as she lost out on the BAFTAs, this is more wish than expectation!
Did Win: Ariana DeBose.
1st award of the night, (as broadcast!!), and exactly as predicted by everyone!
SOUND
NOMINEES
- BELFAST – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
- DUNE – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
- NO TIME TO DIE – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
- THE POWER OF THE DOG – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
- WEST SIDE STORY – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy
Will Win: Dune.
Should Win: Dune.
I think Dune will do well in these technical awards.
Did Win: Dune.
The first of what I think might be a whole host of technical awards for “Dune” tonight.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
NOMINEES
- DUNE – Greig Fraser
- NIGHTMARE ALLEY – Dan Laustsen
- THE POWER OF THE DOG – Ari Wegner
- THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH – Bruno Delbonnel
- WEST SIDE STORY – Janusz Kaminski
Will Win: Dune.
Should Win: The Green Knight. But since it wasn’t nominated, I’ll go for Dune.
Five REALLY worthy contenders for this award this year, but it should be a straight fight between Greig Fraser and Ari Wegner for this one I think. I don’t think a female cinematographer has won the Oscar before, so that might be in Wegner’s favour…. but I think the powerful imagery of Dune will win out here.
Did Win: Dune.
Another technical award for “Dune”. Does my statistics no harm!
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
NOMINEES
- AUDIBLE* – Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean
- LEAD ME HOME* – Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk
- THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL* – Ben Proudfoot
- THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR* – Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
- WHEN WE WERE BULLIES* – Jay Rosenblatt
Won’t judge this category.
Did Win: The Queen of Basketball.
VISUAL EFFECTS
NOMINEES
- DUNE – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
- FREE GUY – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
- NO TIME TO DIE – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
- SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
- SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
Will Win: Dune.
Should Win: Dune.
Spider-Man was not eligible for the BAFTAs (due to a screener dispute), so this is the first time it will be in competition with Dune. It is probably its closest competitor.
Did Win: Dune.
Another technical award! Number 3!
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
NOMINEES
- ENCANTO – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
- FLEE – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- LUCA – Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
- THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES – Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
- RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON – Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho
Will Win: Encanto.
Should Win: Flee.
Encanto will be the “traditional” choice, with Flee being very much left field. I also have a lot of love for “The Michells vs the Machines”, but the Disney lobby will probably be stronger among the voters.
Did Win: Encanto.
Well deserved, but I thought even during the announcement that this might go to TMvTM (which I really want to watch again!).
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
NOMINEES
- AFFAIRS OF THE ART* – Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
- BESTIA* – Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
- BOXBALLET* – Anton Dyakov
- ROBIN ROBIN* – Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
- THE WINDSHIELD WIPER* – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
Won’t judge this category.
Did Win: The Windshield Wiper.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES
- CIARÁN HINDS – Belfast
- TROY KOTSUR – CODA
- JESSE PLEMONS – The Power of the Dog
- J.K. SIMMONS – Being the Ricardos
- KODI SMIT-MCPHEE – The Power of the Dog
Will Win: Troy Kotsur.
Should Win: Troy Kotsur.
Kotsur surely has this one nailed on following his win at the BAFTAs.
Did Win: Troy Kotsur.
Oh wow. So glad about this one. Best ‘speech’ of the night so far.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
NOMINEES
- DRIVE MY CAR* – Japan
- FLEE – Denmark
- THE HAND OF GOD* – Italy
- LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM* – Bhutan
- THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD* – Norway
Will Win: Drive My Car.
Should Win: Flee.
I’m embarrassingly short-sighted on this category (again!) with “Flee” the only film I’ve seen so far (hoping to see “Drive My Car” soon).
Did Win: Drive My Car.
Given the cheer that “Flee” got when the clip was shown, I thought this might be an upset…. but no.
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
NOMINEES
- ALA KACHUU – TAKE AND RUN* – Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
- THE DRESS* – Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki
- THE LONG GOODBYE* – Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
- ON MY MIND* – Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
- PLEASE HOLD* – K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse
Won’t judge this category.
Did Win: The Long Goodbye.
COSTUME DESIGN
NOMINEES
- CRUELLA – Jenny Beavan
- CYRANO – Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
- DUNE – Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
- NIGHTMARE ALLEY – Luis Sequeira
- WEST SIDE STORY – Paul Tazewell
Will Win: Cruella.
Should Win: Cruella.
Again, my early choice for this award when the film first aired back in June.
Did Win: Cruella.
Good British win there for Jenny Beavan.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
NOMINEES
- BELFAST – Written by Kenneth Branagh
- DON’T LOOK UP – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota
- KING RICHARD – Written by Zach Baylin
- LICORICE PIZZA – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
- THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD* – Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Will Win: Licorice Pizza.
Should Win: Belfast.
I’ve still to see “The Worst Person in the World” (why do they release Oscar films in cinemas the weekend of the awards??). I was surprised when Licorice Pizza picked up the BAFTA, but in the film’s home city (as it were) it is likely to be even more favoured. My choice (in the absence of “Being the Ricardos” being nominated) would be for “Belfast”.
Did Win: Kenneth Branagh.
Well…. that spoiled my 100% record for the night! But I’m delighted I lost a fiver on this one! Well done Mr Branagh! After all his massive and varied contributions to film, he has something to go on his mantlepiece.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
NOMINEES
- CODA – Screenplay by Siân Heder
- DRIVE MY CAR* – Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
- DUNE – Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
- THE LOST DAUGHTER – Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal
- THE POWER OF THE DOG – Written by Jane Campion
Will Win: Coda.
Should Win: Coda.
Loved this screenplay.
Did Win: Coda.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
NOMINEES
- DON’T LOOK UP – Nicholas Britell
- DUNE – Hans Zimmer
- ENCANTO – Germaine Franco
- PARALLEL MOTHERS – Alberto Iglesias
- THE POWER OF THE DOG – Jonny Greenwood
Will Win: Dune.
Should Win: Dune.
I think you would have to be brave to bet against Hans Zimmer and Dune for this one.
Did Win: Dune.
And you would have had to be brave! As expected, and a 4th Oscar for “Dune”.
FILM EDITING
NOMINEES
- DON’T LOOK UP – Hank Corwin
- DUNE – Joe Walker
- KING RICHARD – Pamela Martin
- THE POWER OF THE DOG – Peter Sciberras
- TICK, TICK…BOOM! – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
Will Win: The Power of the Dog.
Should Win: The Power of the Dog.
Interestingly “No Time To Die”, which won the BAFTA, wasn’t even nominated for this one… but would have been my choice.
Did Win: Dune.
Oops. Missed this one. Doesn’t look like it’s the night for “The Power of the Dog”. But a 5th Oscar for “Dune”.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
NOMINEES
- ASCENSION* – Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
- ATTICA* – Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
- FLEE – Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)* – Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
- WRITING WITH FIRE* – Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh
Will Win: Summer of Soul (…or when the revolution could not be televised).
Should Win: Flee.
Again, very short sighted here so going again with the ‘word or mouth’ on this.
Did Win: Summer of Soul.
Yawn… one of the more boring categories. Chris Rock presenting. Wait… WTF! WHAT JUST HAPPENED???!!! Unbelievable.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
NOMINEES
DUNE – Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
NIGHTMARE ALLEY – Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
THE POWER OF THE DOG – Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH – Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
WEST SIDE STORY – Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
Will Win: Dune.
Should Win: Nightmare Alley.
Did Win: Dune.
And YET another Oscar for Dune. Number 6! The big winner (in terms of volume) tonight.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
NOMINEES
- BE ALIVE – from King Richard; Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
- DOS ORUGUITAS – from Encanto; Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
- DOWN TO JOY – from Belfast; Music and Lyric by Van Morrison
- NO TIME TO DIE – from No Time to Die; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
- SOMEHOW YOU DO – from Four Good Days*; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
Will Win: Dos Oruguitas from Encanto.
Should Win: Down to Joy from Belfast.
Encanto, Belfast and Bond. Three such different pieces of music, so who knows where this will go. The only one I’m not fond of is the um-chugger Diane Warren country-and-western offering.
Did Win: No Time to Die.
The Encanto song and the Bond song were performed fabulously on the night. Good job.
DIRECTING
NOMINEES
- BELFAST – Kenneth Branagh
- DRIVE MY CAR* – Ryusuke Hamaguchi
- LICORICE PIZZA – Paul Thomas Anderson
- THE POWER OF THE DOG – Jane Campion
- WEST SIDE STORY – Steven Spielberg
Will Win: Jane Campion.
Should Win: Jane Campion.
Although I’d love Branagh to win for Belfast, I think this will go to Jane Campion, again following the BAFTAs.
Did Win: Jane Campion.
As expected. Though I wondered if Branagh might win it as an indicator that Best Film might be heading to “Belfast”? But at this time in the night, Best Film still seems wide open…. the awards are going all over the shop.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES
- JAVIER BARDEM – Being the Ricardos
- BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH – The Power of the Dog
- ANDREW GARFIELD – tick, tick…BOOM!
- WILL SMITH – King Richard
- DENZEL WASHINGTON – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will Win: Will Smith.
Should Win: Will Smith.
I think this one is between Smith and Cumberbatch, and I wouldn’t be disappointed if either won.
Did Win: Will Smith.
An emotional and tearful speech from Smith. All about “protection”: more like protecting his career after the earlier dramatic events of the night!! What an idiot.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
NOMINEES
- COMING 2 AMERICA* – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
- CRUELLA – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
- DUNE – Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
- THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
- HOUSE OF GUCCI – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Should Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
My early forecast for this was also “Cruella” but having now seen the transformation of Jessica Chastain for this movie I’ve switched horses. The BAFTA went this way too.
Did Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
As expected.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES
- JESSICA CHASTAIN – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
- OLIVIA COLMAN – The Lost Daughter
- PENÉLOPE CRUZ – Parallel Mothers
- NICOLE KIDMAN – Being the Ricardos
- KRISTEN STEWART – Spencer
Will Win: Jessica Chastain
Should Win: Jessica Chastain
Compared with past years, and some of the other acting categories, this doesn’t feel as strong a field as in previous years. Of these performances, Jessica Chastain’s is the one that has the smell of being the most Oscar-worthy, although I could possibly see Nicole Kidman causing an upset.
Did Win: Jessica Chastain.
Also as expected. But a well-deserved debut Oscar for Chastain after a lot of really fantastic roles.
BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES
- BELFAST – Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas
- CODA – Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger
- DON’T LOOK UP – Adam McKay and Kevin Messick
- DRIVE MY CAR* – Teruhisa Yamamoto
- DUNE – Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter
- KING RICHARD – Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith
- LICORICE PIZZA – Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson
- NIGHTMARE ALLEY – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper
- THE POWER OF THE DOG – Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier
- WEST SIDE STORY – Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger
Will Win: Coda.
Should Win: Coda.
I’m really going to stick my neck out with this one and vote with my heart. Although “The Power of the Dog” has had all of the running, and it is a great movie, “Coda” is such an hilarious, touching and downright feelgood tale that I just wonder (particularly with all the bruhaha in Ukraine) if it might tip the Academy votes in its favour. Don’t blame me if you place a bet and lose money on this one!
Did Win: Coda.
YES! Fabulous result! Love it!
