Will Win / Should Win / DID Win

After a rather average performance at the BAFTAs two weeks ago, I’m hoping to do better with my Oscar predictions. But if last year’s results are anything to go by (“Spotlight”? Best Film?  Ppppllleease!) then it’s a crap shoot that anyone could win. The heavy hand of “race” and positive discrimination is also likely to raise its head, adding an additional dimension to the uncertainty.

But, here we go, and in this post I will declare who I think WILL win; the nominee that I would personally LIKE to win and – during Sunday’s ceremony – I will update the post to document who DID win.

Updates made after the awards ceremony will be in red below.
11/18 in terms of my predictions.  But one of the most extraordinary Best Picture announcements in Oscar history!

Approach

As for last year, I can only comment on the films I’ve seen (those I haven’t seen I’ve marked with asterisks). Since there are some whole categories where I have seen few (if any) of the films, I have not added predictions for them, but document them below for completeness.  

Hot Links

Each picture is a hotlink back to the relevant Oscar nomination page where you can go for more information. There are also links to my reviews of each film from the textual lists, where applicable.

Best Picture

Nominees:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures

La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will Win:  La La Land.  Should Win:  Arrival.

Did Win:  Moonlight.
A great bunch of films.  There are only a couple of these that I would quibble about being on the list and a few I’m disappointed are not (no “Nocturnal Animals“?). My personal favourite remains “Arrival”, my Film of the Year 2016, with “Manchester by the Sea” a very close second.
But in the ‘City of Stars’ “La La Land” is the one to beat, with possibly “Moonlight” being the only potential dark horse (no pun intended) to become the “Spotlight” surprise of 2017.  
Oh my word… what a fiasco… Warren Beatty reads out “La La Land” and “Moonlight” is the winner.  You couldn’t make it up!

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
Will Win:  Casey Affleck.  Should Win:  Casey Affleck.

Did Win:  Casey Affleck.

A really strong category, and it’s great to see Andrew Garfield and Viggo Mortensen in the list. But this award has Affleck’s name written all over it. For me by far the most moving and emotional performance of the year. Will the Academy agree though?
Yes! Another great result.  SUCH a moving performance.

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:
Isabelle Huppert, Elle*
Ruth Negga, Loving*
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Will Win:  Emma Stone.  Should Win:  Natalie Portman.
Did Win:  Emma Stone.

I’m a bit blind in this category in having seen neither “Loving” nor “Elle” (which isn’t released in the UK until mid-March).
Although I love dear Meryl, and I really liked “Florence Foster Jenkins“, it remains a criminal act that Amy Adams was overlooked for “Arrival” (and indeed “Nocturnal Animals“).
I predicted a win for Natalie Portman at the BAFTAs and was proved wrong. In LA, the probability of this going Emma Stone’s way must be higher, but if I was Ms Portman I’d be mighty hacked off by this decision: prepare for a fixated grin on that fifth of the TV screen during this announcement! And while my heart would go with Emma Stone for this award, I still think Natalie Portman gave the performance of the year as Jackie Kennedy. (But this feels like it could really go either way: in another sweepstake I have gone for Natalie Portman which illustrates how uncertain I am for this one!)

Natalie Portman wasn’t there!  #nofixatedgrin.  But classy acceptance speech from Emma Stone.

Director

Nominees:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Will Win:  Mahershala Ali.  Should Win: Aaron Taylor-Johnson (not nominated).
Did Win:  Mahershala Ali.

Along with Amy Adam’s lack of nomination, Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s omission from this category is shocking.  A chilling performance that shot “Nocturnal Animals” into my top 5 from last year. But Mahershala Ali has had a great year (also appearing in “Hidden Figures”) and I would not be disappointed if the award went his way.

Not remotely a surprise there. What an intelligent, emotional and moving acceptance speech though.  Well done sir.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea.
Will Win:  Viola Davis.  Should Win:  Naomie Harris.

Did Win:  Viola Davis.

OK, so I might be a bit biased here in putting my support behind the UK’s Naomie Harris’s brilliant performance as the crack-addicted druggie in “Moonlight”. But while I wasn’t crazy about the ‘stagey’ nature of “Fences”, I’ll admit that Viola Davis delivers a deeply emotional performance and also well deserves the award. This seems to be an unusually strong category this year.
Although why exactly any of these roles are actually “Supporting” rather than “Leading” is an interesting debate.
Again, no surprise with this one. Wow, Viola looks so different in real life than in “Fences”. Gets the award so far for the over-dramatic speech of the night. #graveyard #bringthemooddown.

Cinematography

Nominees:

Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence*
Will Win: La La Land. Should Win: Nocturnal Animals (not nominated).
Did Win: La La Land.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nominees:

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures

Lion
Moonlight
Will Win:  Lion.  Should Win: Arrival.
Did Win:  Moonlight.

I personally wouldn’t have had either “Moonlight” or “Fences” on this list: “Moonlight” because it so carelessly discarded one of its trump cards without explanation, and “Fences” because the film was such a static translation of the staged play. That being said, “Moonlight” appears to currently be the bookie’s favourite at the moment.

I’m going to plump for the BAFTA winning “Lion” for this category, but “Hidden Figures” could also be in with a shout here. “Arrival” remains my personal favourite for its awe-inducing subtext.

I was always out on a limb on this one.  This is one I will have to agree to disagree about:  Moonlight was good, but I don’t share the same love for it as clearly the rest of the film industry.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Nominees:
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women*
Will Win:  Manchester by the Sea.  Should Win: Manchester by the Sea.
Did Win:  Manchester by the Sea.

I would be greatly disappointed if “La La Land” triumphs in this category. Although I love the film there are far stronger screenplays in this set. It’s also interesting to see the quirky and anarchic “The Lobster” in among the nominations. For me (of the four I’ve seen) it should be “Manchester by the Sea” with “Hell or High Water” coming in a close second.
Yes!  Well done Kenneth Lonergan.  Great result.

Film Editing

Nominees:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land.  Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge.
Did Win:  Hacksaw Ridge.

The editing of the music sequences of “La La Land” was certainly impressive and a worthy winner, but my vote would go with John Gilbert for the editing of “Hacksaw Ridge”, delivering real tension into the traumatic action scenes. 
Great result: well deserved.

Music (Original Score)

Nominees:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Will Win: La La Land.  Should Win: La La Land.
Did Win: La La Land.

There are some interesting choices in this list, including the melancholy cello-based “Jackie” and the eclectic mix played throughout “Moonlight”. But if it goes any way other than in Justin Hurwitz’s direction for “La La Land” I’ll eat my much played CD!

Thank goodness… that dare was starting to worry me!

Music (Original Song)

Nominees:
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land, Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
“Can’t Stop The Feeling” from Trolls*, Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster
“City Of Stars” from La La Land, Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story*, Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting
“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana*, Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
Will Win: La La Land.  Should Win: La La Land.
Did Win:  City of Stars.

“City of Stars” from “La La Land” must be the ear-worm of the decade and I would be staggered if it didn’t win in this category. The real question will be whether the organisers stick Sting on early to give viewer’s wrists a chance to heal before the finale!

#unstaggered.

Make Up and Hairstyling

Nominees:
A Man Called Ove*
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond.  Should Win: Star Trek Beyond.
Did Win:  Suicide Squad.

A pure guess, purely because I very much liked Sofia Boutella’s make-up (about the only thing I did approve of in that film!).

Seems almost obscene that “Suicide Squad” can put “Oscar-winner” on its DVD… but, the make-up is undeniably good… I’d forgot about Cara Delevingne’s spectacular look.

Costume Design

Nominees:
Allied*
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Will Win: La La Land.  Should Win: La La Land.
Did Win:  Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find them.

Stylish. Gorgeous. Colourful. Simple. “La La Land”. But that’s what I said for the BAFTAs and that went with Jackie, which I dismissed as being too like the originals to win… so what do I know!

A British win!  Good on her.  But Colleen Atwood seemed genuinely gobsmacked she won.

Production Design

Nominees:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Will Win: La La Land.  Should Win: La La Land.
Did Win:  La La Land.

I was a little surprised that neither “Hacksaw Ridge” nor “Nocturnal Animals” were nominated for this award, but good to see “Hail Caesar” given a nod, patchy as the Coen Brothers film may have been. I would expect “La La Land” to walk away with this one though, although “Fantastic Beasts” won the BAFTA.

Was beginning to think that this was going to be a complete wipeout for La La Land.  We will see how the rest of the evening unfolds.

Visual Effects

Nominees:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book*
Kubo and the Two Strings*
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Will Win: The Jungle Book.  Should Win: Rogue One.
Did Win:  The Jungle Book.

All of the buzz seems to be about the CGI in the “Jungle Book”, the only one I haven’t seen! But my money would go to “Rogue One” for the impressive closing battle scenes.
“All the buzz” was right!

Sound Editing

Nominees:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Will Win: La La Land.  Should Win: Arrival.
Did Win:  Arrival.
This is what I predicted for the BAFTAs and Arrival went and won it!  And the bookies seem to be going with Hacksaw Ridge (which does have excellent sound editing). But I have a sneaky feeling that this is going to be La La Land’s night across the board.  We will see.
Not going with my gut feel once is bad; not going with my gut feel twice is plain careless!

Sound Mixing

Nominees:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi*
Will Win: La La Land.  Should Win: Arrival.
Did Win:  Hacksaw Ridge.

I’ll go with the same mix (no pun intended!) as the sound editing for this. It always seems to me that the sound department is a bit greedy in having two goes at the cherry for an Oscar where there are lots of potential other areas that could be represented:  Best stunt team? Best ensemble cast? Best animal actor? 
What a night for Kevin O’Connell, nominated 21 times and now getting a win!

And the rest….

I’ve seen so few of these films in the remaining categories that I will exclude them from my predictions, but for completeness they are…

Documentary (Feature)

Nominees:
Fire at Sea*
I Am Not Your Negro*
Life, Animated*
O.J.: Made in America*
13th*
Did Win:  O.J.: Made in America.

No “Beatles: Eight Days Per Week“? I bet Ron Howard was a bit miffed.

Documentary (Short)

Nominees:
Extremis*
4.1 Miles*
Joe’s Violin*
Watani: My Homeland*
The White Helmets*
Did Win:  The White Helmets.

Animated Feature Film

Nominees:
Kubo and the Two Strings*
Moana*
My Life as a Zucchini*
The Red Turtle*
Zootopia*
I suspect that Zootopia may have the best chance in this set.

Short Film (Animated)

Nominees:
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Did Win:  Piper.

Short Film (Live Action)

Nominees:
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Did Win:  Sing.
Don’t mean to be rude, but the Oscar voters did know Sing was not the same animated flick that their kids liked, check?

Foreign Language Film

Nominees:
Land of Mine*
A Man Called Ore*
The Salesman*
Tanna*
Toni Erdmann*
Did Win:  The Salesman.