The 2019 Oscars: Will Win; Should Win; Did Win

“It’s a wonderful night for Oscar. Oscar, Oscar – who will win?”

It’s time for the big one. Sunday 24th February sees the 91st Oscar announcements in a host-less show: the last time that happened, in 1989, it was an unmitigated disaster. Let’s hope the Academy have learned some lessons.  

Here are my predictions with my traditional “Will Win, Should Win”s for the categories. There are still a few films (marked with *) that I have yet to see: “BlacKkKlansman” and “Buster Scruggs” I have no excuse for; but some haven’t been released in the UK yet! And I will take a “bye” in some categories due to lack of coverage. 

I’ll be watching the show live, so will be updating this post with the “Did Win” results. I was 14 out of 19 in 2017 and 16 out of 19 last year…. can I do better? (I think it’s a tall order!).

Great start to the night with Queen rocking the joint. Let’s see how the awards fall! 

My score for the night is a woe-ful 7/18.  What a surprising spread of awards.  But hoorah for Olivia Colman!  If Richard E Grant had also come through, that would have been magical. 

BEST PICTURE 

• Black Panther (Kevin Feige, Producer)
• BlacKkKlansman* (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee, Producers)
• Bohemian Rhapsody (Graham King, Producer)
• The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos, Producers)
• Green Book (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Producers)
• Roma (Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuarón, Producers)
• A Star is Born (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor, Producers)
• Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers)

Will Win:  Roma

Should Win:  Roma

Did Win:  Green Book.

My heart is STILL with Green Book in this category, and my patriotism will have me cheering “The Favourite” on. But, I can’t deny that I think the best film of the year that I’ve seen is “Roma”

My Film of 2018 gets the top award!  What a surprise….. perhaps the anti-Netflix backlash has had its effect against “Roma”. 

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Christian Bale (Vice)
• Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
• Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)*
• Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
• Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

Will Win:  Rami Malek

Should Win:  Christian Bale

Did Win: Rami Malek. 

With the exception of the (yet to be UK-released) “At Eternity’s Gate” it’s the same line up as the BAFTA’s.  And I don’t see it going a different way. But again I would prefer to see Bale win for his extraordinary take on Dick Cheney. 

That’s a clean sweep for Malek.  With four Oscars already, could Bohemian Rhapsody actually sneak Best Picture at the end of the night?? 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
• Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)*
• Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
• Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
• Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Will Win:  Mahershala Ali

Should Win:  Mahershala Ali

Did Win: Mahershala Ali. 

Aside from the swapping out of Timothée Chalamet for Sam Elliott (he was about the best thing I thought in “Star”), again the line up maps to the BAFTAs and I would have thought this would be another shoe-in for Ali. Sam Rockwell would strike me as the nearest competition.

Mahershala picks this up as expected and deserved. Hugh roar of support in the auditorium for Richard E Grant though, which was lovely.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

• Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
• Glenn Close (The Wife)
• Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
• Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
• Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Will Win:  Glenn Close

Should Win:  Glenn Close

Did Win: Olivia Colman. 

Again with the exception of a swap out of Viola Davis for the excellent Yalitza Aparicio – a move of which I heartily applaud – it’s an identical line-up to the BAFTA’s. But whereas the BAFTA’s went for Colman, I suspect the Oscars will go the other way. Having now seen “The Wife” (have yet to write the review) I can see why. Although I’m torn between the two. 

WOW… just WOW!!!!

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Amy Adams (Vice)
• Marina De Tavira (Roma)
• Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
• Emma Stone (The Favourite)
• Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Will Win:  Regina King 

Should Win:  Rachel Weisz

Did Win: Regina King. 

This is the most random category of the set, and the most unpredictable. Two ladies (Claire Foy and Margot Robbie) have been dropped from the BAFTA list and replaced by Regina King and Marina De Tavira. King has such a small role that it feels more like a Dench/Shakespeare in Love moment, but my guess will be that she will win this one. 

1st award of the night and Regina King wins.  

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Cold War*
• The Favourite
• Never Look Away*
• Roma
• A Star is Born

Will Win:  Roma

Should Win:  Roma

Did Win: Roma. 

Yet another randomisation of the nomination list from the BAFTAs: no “First Man” (which seems bizarre). Again I think “Roma” is the standout cinematography.

It had to go this way didn’t it.  Excellent choice. 

BEST DIRECTOR

• Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)*
• Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War)*
• Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
• Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
• Adam McKay (Vice)

Will Win:  Alfonso Cuarón

Should Win:  Alfonso Cuarón

Did Win: Alfonso Cuarón. 

A real kick in the teeth here for Bradley Cooper, with no nomination for “A Star is Born”. And also of course for all the great female directors this year:  no Lynne Ramsey? No Marielle Heller?  It would be a crime though if Cuarón didn’t pick this one up.

2nd win tonight for Alfonso. What a tour de force “Roma” is. Must help its chances now for Best Picture.

FILM EDITING

• BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown)*
• Bohemian Rhapsody  (John Ottman)
• The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
• Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)
• Vice (Hank Corwin)

Will Win: Vice

Should Win:  Vice

Did Win: Bohemian Rhapsody. 

It shows how random some of these technical categories are, when there’s only one match between the BAFTA nominations and the Oscar nominations!  I’ll go with the BAFTA winner here, “Vice”. When you see the “fly fishing conversation” between Bale and Rockwell (pictured), you appreciate more why this is deserved.

The film has received some vocal criticisms for its editing, so this is a bit of a surprise. 

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs* (Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)
• BlacKkKlansman* (Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee)
• Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)
• If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
• A Star is Born (Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters)

I’m 40% down on this category.  So I’ll go with my BAFTA gut interest on this one (which turned out to be good!)

Will Win:  BlackKkKlansman

Should Win:  BlackKkKlansman

Did Win: BlackKkKlansman

The first Oscar win for Spike Lee.  And the first F-bomb dropped in the awards ceremony tonight.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

• The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
• First Reformed – Paul Schrader*
• Green Book – Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga
• Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
• Vice – Adam McKay

Will Win:  The Favourite

Should Win:  The Favourite

Did Win: Green Book.

“First Reformed” is not out in the UK yet, but I’ve seen the rest. This might be my patriotic genes driving this again, but I’ll go with the BAFTA winner for this one. 

What??  Don’t get me wrong…. I love “Green Book”, but “The Favourite” was most definitely robbed here.  

SOUND EDITING

• Black Panther (Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker)
• Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone)
• First Man (Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan)
• A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl)
• Roma (Sergio Díaz and Skip Lievsay)

Will Win:  Black Panther

Should Win:  A Quiet Place

Did Win:  Bohemian Rhapsody.

SOUND MIXING

• Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin)
• Bohemian Rhapsody (Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali)
• First Man (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis)
• Roma (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio García)
• A Star is Born (Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow)

Will Win:  Black Panther

Should Win:  Bohemian Rhapsody

Did Win:  Bohemian Rhapsody

I’ve said it before (after this many years it is starting to get boring!) that it seems bizarre that there are TWO awards for sound in the Oscars: I think like the BAFTAs they should combine them into one to make room for other awards (which hopefully the Academy might get right next year). For these categories I suspect that Black Panther might win through. But I’m not a sound techician so who knows.

Both Sound awards go to Bohemian Rhapsody!  The Black Panther train is stoppable! 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• Incredibles 2*
• Isle of Dogs*
• Mirai*
• Ralph Breaks the Internet*
• Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse*

I havent seen a single one of these animated films, I’ll officially pass on this category. My guess would be that Spider-Verse will again win this one as for the BAFTAs

Wild Stab in the Dark:  Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse

Did Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse. 

COSTUME DESIGN

• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots
• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs*

Will Win:  The Favourite

Should Win:  Mary Queen of Scots

Did Win: Black Panther. 

As for the BAFTAs, I think “The Favourite” will take this for Sandy Powell, but I would personally give this one to “Mary Queen of Scots”.

Black Panther the clear favourite on the night…. not even nominated at the BAFTAs! 

DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

• Free Solo*
• Hale County This Morning, This Evening*
• Minding the Gap*
• Of Fathers and Sons*
• RBG*

Again, I’ve not seen a single film in this category so I’ll pass on formal comment….. but for heaven’s sake; no “Three Identical Strangers”? No “They Shall Not Grow Old”?  

Wild Stab in the Dark:  Free Solo.

Did Win: . Free Solo.

Really MUST get to watch this…. have heard its vertiguously amazing.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Capernaum (Lebanon)*
• Cold War (Poland)*
• Never Look Away (Germany)*
• Roma (Mexico)
• Shoplifters (pictured above, Japan)* 

An interesting one this.  Surely if “Roma” is the likely winner of the Best Film, then surely it must by the winner of the Best Foreign Language Film award?  That’s the way it went at the BAFTAs anyway. 

Did Win: Roma. 

Had to be really. Will it impact its chances as Best Picture though?

MAKE UP & HAIR

• Border (Göran Lundström and Pamela Goldammer)*
• Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks)
• Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney)

Will Win:  Mary Queen of Scots

Should Win:  Mary Queen of Scots

Did Win:  Vice

I’m sorry Academy?? Not even a nomination for the BAFTA winner “The Favourite”??  #lossofcredibility

Not sure why I didn’t think of Vice’s make-up effects for this one!  D’Oh!

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

• Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson)
• BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)*
• If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)
• Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)*
• Mary Poppins Returns

Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win:  If Beale Street Could Talk

Did Win:  Black Panther

Another extraordinary kick in the teeth for BAFTA-winner “A Star is Born” in not getting a nomination. So I’m going in this one for my BAFTA “Should Win” suggestion, the cello-heavy score from “Beale Street”.

Well!  This wouldn’t have made my top three!

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

• “All The Stars” from Black Panther (Music by Kendrick Lamar, Mark “Sounwave” Spears and Anthony “Top Dawg” Tiffith; Lyric by Kendrick Lamar, SZA and Anthony “Top Dawg” Tiffith)
• “I’ll Fight” from “RBG”* (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
• “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyric by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman)
• “Shallow” from “A Star is Born” (Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt)
• “When a Cowboy Trades his Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs* (Music and Lyric by Gillian Welch and David Rawlings)

Will Win:  Shallow

Should Win: Shallow

Did Win: Shallow

There SURELY must be some love in Hollywood for “A Star is Born”?  Given its been overlooked in other categories, this must be a shoe-in for the statuette.

Yep. An emotional Gaga speech!  

PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Black Panther (Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Jay Hart)
• The Favourite (Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton)
• First Man (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas)
• Mary Poppins Returns (Production Design: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim)
• Roma (Production Design: Eugenio Caballero; Set Decoration: Bárbara Enríquez)

Will Win:  The Favourite

Should Win:  The Favourite

Did Win:  Black Panther

It’s a swap out of “Grindelwald” for “Panther” but other than that a match with the BAFTA nominations.  I’ll stick with my successful guess of “The Favourite” for this one. 

Black Panther really picking up a lot of these technical Oscars!  I don’t think its going to be a good night for “The Favourite”. A moral of the tale is “never put your phone on lock when your speech is on it”. 

VISUAL EFFECTS

• Avengers: Infinity War (Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick)
• Christopher Robin* (Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould)
• First Man (Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm)
• Ready Player One (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and David Shirk)
• Solo: A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy)

Will Win:  Avengers: Infinity War

Should Win:  First Man

Did Win: First Man

I think this will probably go Marvel’s way, though bizarrely the BAFTA winner “Black Panther” is not nominated:  not that I think it should have been for the BAFTAs either!  Again, I would personally go for the quieter but much more impressive effects in “First Man”.

Well – a bit of a surprise but a nice surprise.  Glad “First Man” picked up something.

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I’ve not seen a single film in any of these categories so I’ll pass on any comment.

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

• Animal Behaviour (Alison Snowden and David Fine)
• Bao (Domee Shi and Becky Neiman-Cobb)
• Late Afternoon (Louise Bagnall and Nuria González Blanco)
• One Small Step (pictured) (Andrew Chesworth and Bobby Pontillas)
• Weekends (Trevor Jimenez)

Did Win:  Bao.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

• Detainment (Vincent Lambe and Darren Mahon)
• Fauve (Jeremy Comte and Maria Gracia Turgeon)
• Marguerite (pictured) (Marianne Farley and Marie-Hélène Panisset)
• Mother (Rodrigo Sorogoyen and María del Puy Alvarado)
• Skin (Guy Nattiv and Jaime Ray Newman)

Did Win:  Skin.